Oinsa Fundo Petrolifero Sustenta Orsamento Jeral Estado
Wainhira Minarai Maran?
Autor: Tomas Freitas
Introdusaun
Nasaun barak iha mundo esforsu hakore - an husi dependensia ba seitor petroleu tanba la sustentavel, rezerva menus no folin la estavel mak sai hanesan sasukat. Iha fulan Junho 2014 folin minarai atinzi $115 kada bidon, no iha Febreiru 2016 tun ba $35 kada barril, (Rogoff, 2016). Haktuir relatoriu husi World Economic Forum hateten katak razaun ba folin minarai tun la’os deit tanba nasaun OPEC sira hamenus sira nian produsaun (Supply Failure) hanesan akontese iha tinan 1985-1986. Petroleu nian folin tun mos la’os deit tanba krizi ekonomiku hanesan akontese iha tinan 2008-2009 ne’ebe kunyesidu ho (Demand Failure), maibe iha relatoriu ne deskreve folin tun tanba buat rua ne hotu, liu liu relasiona ho nasaun China nian kresimentu ekonomia, ne’ebe afeita makás husi sasan folin tun (Sharps drops in commodity price). Deklarasaun ne hato’o husi Profesor Dr. Kenneth Rogoff husi Universidade Harvard, (Rogoff, 2016).
Iha artiklu ne, sei la deskuti kona ba tanba sa mina nian folin tun, autor sei tenta haré Timor-Leste nian dependensia ba industria extraktivu, no analiza oinsa Fundo Petrolifero bele sustenta Orsamento Jeral do Estado.
Iha paper ne autor koko analiza data balun relasiona ho industria extraktivu husi Tasi Timor, liu-liu produsaun mai husi rezevoar sira hanesan Elang Kakatua ho Kakatua Norte (EKKN), Bayu Undan no KITAN. Analiza ne atu loke fila fali ho klean data official mak publika husi Autoridade Nasional do Petroleum e Minerais (ANPM), no data balun publika iha dokumentu Orsamentu Jeral do Estado. Resultadu investigasaun ne detekta bainhira los mak produsaun husi Kampo Bayu Undan sei maran, tanba sekuandu Timor-Leste la halo ona produsaun, entaun sei afekta kalae ba iha kalkulasaun Rendimentu Estimativu Sustentavel (RSE), signifika mos futuru nasaun Timor-Leste atu sai oinsa los.
Wainhira Minarai Maran?
Autor: Tomas Freitas
Introdusaun
Nasaun barak iha mundo esforsu hakore - an husi dependensia ba seitor petroleu tanba la sustentavel, rezerva menus no folin la estavel mak sai hanesan sasukat. Iha fulan Junho 2014 folin minarai atinzi $115 kada bidon, no iha Febreiru 2016 tun ba $35 kada barril, (Rogoff, 2016). Haktuir relatoriu husi World Economic Forum hateten katak razaun ba folin minarai tun la’os deit tanba nasaun OPEC sira hamenus sira nian produsaun (Supply Failure) hanesan akontese iha tinan 1985-1986. Petroleu nian folin tun mos la’os deit tanba krizi ekonomiku hanesan akontese iha tinan 2008-2009 ne’ebe kunyesidu ho (Demand Failure), maibe iha relatoriu ne deskreve folin tun tanba buat rua ne hotu, liu liu relasiona ho nasaun China nian kresimentu ekonomia, ne’ebe afeita makás husi sasan folin tun (Sharps drops in commodity price). Deklarasaun ne hato’o husi Profesor Dr. Kenneth Rogoff husi Universidade Harvard, (Rogoff, 2016).
Iha artiklu ne, sei la deskuti kona ba tanba sa mina nian folin tun, autor sei tenta haré Timor-Leste nian dependensia ba industria extraktivu, no analiza oinsa Fundo Petrolifero bele sustenta Orsamento Jeral do Estado.
Iha paper ne autor koko analiza data balun relasiona ho industria extraktivu husi Tasi Timor, liu-liu produsaun mai husi rezevoar sira hanesan Elang Kakatua ho Kakatua Norte (EKKN), Bayu Undan no KITAN. Analiza ne atu loke fila fali ho klean data official mak publika husi Autoridade Nasional do Petroleum e Minerais (ANPM), no data balun publika iha dokumentu Orsamentu Jeral do Estado. Resultadu investigasaun ne detekta bainhira los mak produsaun husi Kampo Bayu Undan sei maran, tanba sekuandu Timor-Leste la halo ona produsaun, entaun sei afekta kalae ba iha kalkulasaun Rendimentu Estimativu Sustentavel (RSE), signifika mos futuru nasaun Timor-Leste atu sai oinsa los.
Photo credit to Roberth Garvey
Produsaun Minarai
Iha tabela kraik, autor konsege kompila hamutuk evidensia mak mai husi relatoriu annual Timor Sea Designate Authority (TSDA), relatoriu annual Autoridade Nasional do Petroleum e Minerais (ANPM) no mos informasaun balun preve iha dokumentu livro do Orsamentu Jeral do Estado. Mai haré didiak informasaun hirak ne.
Produsaun Minarai
Iha tabela kraik, autor konsege kompila hamutuk evidensia mak mai husi relatoriu annual Timor Sea Designate Authority (TSDA), relatoriu annual Autoridade Nasional do Petroleum e Minerais (ANPM) no mos informasaun balun preve iha dokumentu livro do Orsamentu Jeral do Estado. Mai haré didiak informasaun hirak ne.
Fontes: Annual Report TSDA, Annual report ANPM, Livros Orsamento Geral do Estado.
Koluna dahuluk husi tabela iha leten representa informasaun kona ba produsaun mina-matak husi posu Bayu Undan, koluna tuir deskreve dadus kona ba produsaun gas mai husi Bayu Undan, koluna seluk eskrita informasaun balun mesmo la kumpletu kona ba produsaun mina-matak husi KITAN, iha koluna nia sorin seluk iha informasaun oituan kona ba produsaun gas husi KITAN. Alende informasaun kona ba likuido ho gas husi rezevoar rua Bayu Undan ho KITAN, iha mos koluna seluk fo sai numero total produsaun minarai kompostu husi Elang Kakatua ho Kakatua Norte (EKKN) + Bayu Undan + KITAN, data produsaun hirak ne fo sai desde tinan 2004 ate 2017. Iha tabela mos hatudu kona ba folin presu minarai kada barril ne’ebe mina-matak nian folin adere ba. Informasaun husi koluna ikus liu ilustra rendimentu receitas husi aktividades petrolifero, kompostu husi mina ho gas nian folin no mos taxa hirak mak kolekta husi aktividades refere.
Relatoriu annual Authoridade Nasional do Petroleo e Minerais (ANPM) 2017, esklarese produsaun mina matak (liquidos) kada loron husi Kampo Bayu Undan. Bazeia ba publikasaun website ANPM (2017) nian liu husi (Lafaek, Field Production Data), total produsaun mina husi Bayu Undan iha tinan 2017 hamutuk barril Miliaun 41,417,962.91 sekuandu ita kompara ho total produsaun iha tinan 2016, ne’ebe produs barril miliaun 48,868,023.30 numeros mak diferensia provolta barril miliaun 7,397,060.39 ho liafuan seluk ita bele hateten produsaun iha tinan 2017 tun liu 15% kompara ho produsaun 2016 nian, (ANPM, 2017). Wainhira halo analiza produsaun kada loron husi tinan 2004 – 2017, data publika katak produsaun kada loron menus husi tinan ba tinan. Data produsaun kada loron iha tinan 2004 komesa ho kuantidade 115.000 barril maibe wainhira kontinua halo produsaun lor-loron durante tinan sanulu resin hat nian laran agora menus liu 25.000 barril, (ANPM, 2017,25). Iha faktus mos hatudu wainhira rezerva likuidos tun dadaun produsaun kada loron mos resulta diferensia bot, ijemplo iha tinan 2016 diferensia 15.3% kompara ho tinan 2015 nian, nune mos produsaun iha tinan 2017 menus 20.6% kompara ho tinan 2016 nian.
Iha parte seluk tabela iha leten mos performa produsaun gas kada loron husi kampo Bayu Undan ne’ebe hatudu data diferente oituan ho produsaun minarai nian. Hahu’u husi tinan 2008 produsaun gas kada loron kuaze estabil durante dekada ida nian laran, data iha leten deskreve iha tinan 2008 produsaun gas kada loron atinzi 500 Milion Meter Square Cubic Feet (Mmscf), (ANPM, 2008, 20), numero produsaun ne konsege hakmatek durante tinan tolu nian laran, depois iha tinan 2011 numero konsege sae ba 550 ate 588 Mmscf iha tinan 2015, (ANPM, 2011, 26 & 2015, 22) hafoin tun fali ba 510 Mmscf iha tinan 2017, (ANPM, 2017, 25).
Alende produsaun husi Posu Bayu Undan, Timor-Leste mos iha posu seluk hanesan KITAN. Mina-matan refere komesa ninian produsaun mina matak ba dahuluk iha loron 11 de Outubro 2011 no produsaun aktividades ne taka iha loron 15 Dezembro 2015, (ANPM, 2015). Rezevoar KITAN hapara sira nian aktividade produsaun tanba likuido menus liu, data iha tabela hateten produsaun minarai ikus liu husi KITAN kada loron provolta deit 5000 – 6000 barril, (ANPM, 2016, 24). Mesmo durasaun tempo ba produsaun ladun naruk maibe rezevoar refere konsege hatama osan milioens ba konta (Account) Fundo Petrolifero.
Informasaun iha tabela leten mos ilustra total produsaun kada tinan nian, kompostu husi Elang Kakatua ho Kakatua Norte (EKKN), aumenta tan Bayu Undan ho KITAN. Numerous rezerva indika momos kuantidade produsaun hahu’u husi tinan 2004 produs ona likuidos provolta barril miliaun rua nulu resin ate miliaun nen nulu resin, total kuantidade produsaun kontribui husi EKKN ho Bayu Undan iha tinan 2004 – 2007. Hafoin EKKN la halo tan ninian produsaun iha tinan 2007, Bayu Undan mesak halo produsaun konsege supa sai mina matak ho kuantidade barril miliaun nen nulu resin tolu ate miliaun hitu nulu resin hat iha tinan 2008-2010. Iha 2011 rezevoar KITAN mos hahu’u halo produsaun no entre posu rua konsege produs hamutuk mina-matak bidon miliaun nen nulu resin walu iha tinan 2011, no bidon miliaun lima nulu resin rua liu iha tinan 2015 molok KITAN hakotu ninian destinu. Agora dadaun uniku rezevoar halo produsaun mak Bayu Undan ne’ebe iha tinan 2016 produs ona mina-matak bidon miliaun hat nulu resin walu, no produs mina-matak bidon miliaun hat nulu resin ida iha tinan 2017, (ANPM, 2017).
Koluna ikus iha tabela leten hato’o total receitas petroleum ne’ebe kompostu husi faan minarai nian folin no taxa ne’ebe kolekta husi aktividades petroliferos. Informasaun deskreve iha koluna esklarese receitas aumenta wainhira kuantidade produsaun aumenta barak no presu mundial mos ninian folin aumenta as. Observasaun ba data mak publika iha livros Orsamento Jeral do Estado durante tinan tolu nian laran wainhira produsaun sei barak no mina nian folin kada bidon faan ho folin $88 iha tinan 2011 (Ministerio das Financas, 2012, 29), faan ho presu $91 iha tinan 2012 (Ministerio das Financas, 2013, 61), no $86.6 iha tinan 2013, (Ministerio das Financas, 2014, 42). Durante period tinan tolu receitas husi Tasi Timor konsege hatama osan biliaun sia resin ba konta Fundo Petrolifero. Maibe agora Receitas total husi Tasi Timor tun barak tanba kuantidade rezerva menus, informasaun husi tinan 2016 nian deklara osan tama miliaun $223.9 (Ministerio das Financas, 2018, 52). Numero refere tun kuaze 77.1% kompara ho receitas tinan 2015 mak hamutuk miliaun 978.9 razaun fundamentu husi receitas tun tanba mina folin tun iha merkadu global no mina bidon ida faan deit ho folin $42.7, (Ministerio das Financas, 2017, 52).
Informasaun iha tabela leten hatudu provas katak aktividades produsaun husi Bayu Undan sei para iha loron ida, ijemplo ne hatudu ona husi EKKN no mos KITAN. Mina-matan KITAN hapara sira nian produsaun wainhira sira produs deit bidon rihun lima (5000) kada loron, (ANPM, 2016, 24). Tanba Kompania operador hatene ona kustu ba halo produsaun bot liu fali kompara ho lukru mak sira hetan husi faan mina refere. Molok halo prediksaun bainhira mak Bayu Undan atu hapara ninian produsaun tuir mai bele analiza didiak grafiku balun mak iha kraik ne’ebe publika husi Autoridade Nasional Petroleum e Minerais nian relatoriu annual iha tinan 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017.
Grafik Produsaun Mina no Gas iha Rezevoar Bayu Undan husi Janeiru-Dezembru 2014
Koluna dahuluk husi tabela iha leten representa informasaun kona ba produsaun mina-matak husi posu Bayu Undan, koluna tuir deskreve dadus kona ba produsaun gas mai husi Bayu Undan, koluna seluk eskrita informasaun balun mesmo la kumpletu kona ba produsaun mina-matak husi KITAN, iha koluna nia sorin seluk iha informasaun oituan kona ba produsaun gas husi KITAN. Alende informasaun kona ba likuido ho gas husi rezevoar rua Bayu Undan ho KITAN, iha mos koluna seluk fo sai numero total produsaun minarai kompostu husi Elang Kakatua ho Kakatua Norte (EKKN) + Bayu Undan + KITAN, data produsaun hirak ne fo sai desde tinan 2004 ate 2017. Iha tabela mos hatudu kona ba folin presu minarai kada barril ne’ebe mina-matak nian folin adere ba. Informasaun husi koluna ikus liu ilustra rendimentu receitas husi aktividades petrolifero, kompostu husi mina ho gas nian folin no mos taxa hirak mak kolekta husi aktividades refere.
Relatoriu annual Authoridade Nasional do Petroleo e Minerais (ANPM) 2017, esklarese produsaun mina matak (liquidos) kada loron husi Kampo Bayu Undan. Bazeia ba publikasaun website ANPM (2017) nian liu husi (Lafaek, Field Production Data), total produsaun mina husi Bayu Undan iha tinan 2017 hamutuk barril Miliaun 41,417,962.91 sekuandu ita kompara ho total produsaun iha tinan 2016, ne’ebe produs barril miliaun 48,868,023.30 numeros mak diferensia provolta barril miliaun 7,397,060.39 ho liafuan seluk ita bele hateten produsaun iha tinan 2017 tun liu 15% kompara ho produsaun 2016 nian, (ANPM, 2017). Wainhira halo analiza produsaun kada loron husi tinan 2004 – 2017, data publika katak produsaun kada loron menus husi tinan ba tinan. Data produsaun kada loron iha tinan 2004 komesa ho kuantidade 115.000 barril maibe wainhira kontinua halo produsaun lor-loron durante tinan sanulu resin hat nian laran agora menus liu 25.000 barril, (ANPM, 2017,25). Iha faktus mos hatudu wainhira rezerva likuidos tun dadaun produsaun kada loron mos resulta diferensia bot, ijemplo iha tinan 2016 diferensia 15.3% kompara ho tinan 2015 nian, nune mos produsaun iha tinan 2017 menus 20.6% kompara ho tinan 2016 nian.
Iha parte seluk tabela iha leten mos performa produsaun gas kada loron husi kampo Bayu Undan ne’ebe hatudu data diferente oituan ho produsaun minarai nian. Hahu’u husi tinan 2008 produsaun gas kada loron kuaze estabil durante dekada ida nian laran, data iha leten deskreve iha tinan 2008 produsaun gas kada loron atinzi 500 Milion Meter Square Cubic Feet (Mmscf), (ANPM, 2008, 20), numero produsaun ne konsege hakmatek durante tinan tolu nian laran, depois iha tinan 2011 numero konsege sae ba 550 ate 588 Mmscf iha tinan 2015, (ANPM, 2011, 26 & 2015, 22) hafoin tun fali ba 510 Mmscf iha tinan 2017, (ANPM, 2017, 25).
Alende produsaun husi Posu Bayu Undan, Timor-Leste mos iha posu seluk hanesan KITAN. Mina-matan refere komesa ninian produsaun mina matak ba dahuluk iha loron 11 de Outubro 2011 no produsaun aktividades ne taka iha loron 15 Dezembro 2015, (ANPM, 2015). Rezevoar KITAN hapara sira nian aktividade produsaun tanba likuido menus liu, data iha tabela hateten produsaun minarai ikus liu husi KITAN kada loron provolta deit 5000 – 6000 barril, (ANPM, 2016, 24). Mesmo durasaun tempo ba produsaun ladun naruk maibe rezevoar refere konsege hatama osan milioens ba konta (Account) Fundo Petrolifero.
Informasaun iha tabela leten mos ilustra total produsaun kada tinan nian, kompostu husi Elang Kakatua ho Kakatua Norte (EKKN), aumenta tan Bayu Undan ho KITAN. Numerous rezerva indika momos kuantidade produsaun hahu’u husi tinan 2004 produs ona likuidos provolta barril miliaun rua nulu resin ate miliaun nen nulu resin, total kuantidade produsaun kontribui husi EKKN ho Bayu Undan iha tinan 2004 – 2007. Hafoin EKKN la halo tan ninian produsaun iha tinan 2007, Bayu Undan mesak halo produsaun konsege supa sai mina matak ho kuantidade barril miliaun nen nulu resin tolu ate miliaun hitu nulu resin hat iha tinan 2008-2010. Iha 2011 rezevoar KITAN mos hahu’u halo produsaun no entre posu rua konsege produs hamutuk mina-matak bidon miliaun nen nulu resin walu iha tinan 2011, no bidon miliaun lima nulu resin rua liu iha tinan 2015 molok KITAN hakotu ninian destinu. Agora dadaun uniku rezevoar halo produsaun mak Bayu Undan ne’ebe iha tinan 2016 produs ona mina-matak bidon miliaun hat nulu resin walu, no produs mina-matak bidon miliaun hat nulu resin ida iha tinan 2017, (ANPM, 2017).
Koluna ikus iha tabela leten hato’o total receitas petroleum ne’ebe kompostu husi faan minarai nian folin no taxa ne’ebe kolekta husi aktividades petroliferos. Informasaun deskreve iha koluna esklarese receitas aumenta wainhira kuantidade produsaun aumenta barak no presu mundial mos ninian folin aumenta as. Observasaun ba data mak publika iha livros Orsamento Jeral do Estado durante tinan tolu nian laran wainhira produsaun sei barak no mina nian folin kada bidon faan ho folin $88 iha tinan 2011 (Ministerio das Financas, 2012, 29), faan ho presu $91 iha tinan 2012 (Ministerio das Financas, 2013, 61), no $86.6 iha tinan 2013, (Ministerio das Financas, 2014, 42). Durante period tinan tolu receitas husi Tasi Timor konsege hatama osan biliaun sia resin ba konta Fundo Petrolifero. Maibe agora Receitas total husi Tasi Timor tun barak tanba kuantidade rezerva menus, informasaun husi tinan 2016 nian deklara osan tama miliaun $223.9 (Ministerio das Financas, 2018, 52). Numero refere tun kuaze 77.1% kompara ho receitas tinan 2015 mak hamutuk miliaun 978.9 razaun fundamentu husi receitas tun tanba mina folin tun iha merkadu global no mina bidon ida faan deit ho folin $42.7, (Ministerio das Financas, 2017, 52).
Informasaun iha tabela leten hatudu provas katak aktividades produsaun husi Bayu Undan sei para iha loron ida, ijemplo ne hatudu ona husi EKKN no mos KITAN. Mina-matan KITAN hapara sira nian produsaun wainhira sira produs deit bidon rihun lima (5000) kada loron, (ANPM, 2016, 24). Tanba Kompania operador hatene ona kustu ba halo produsaun bot liu fali kompara ho lukru mak sira hetan husi faan mina refere. Molok halo prediksaun bainhira mak Bayu Undan atu hapara ninian produsaun tuir mai bele analiza didiak grafiku balun mak iha kraik ne’ebe publika husi Autoridade Nasional Petroleum e Minerais nian relatoriu annual iha tinan 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017.
Grafik Produsaun Mina no Gas iha Rezevoar Bayu Undan husi Janeiru-Dezembru 2014
Fontes Imajen husi Relatoriu Annual ANPM 2014, pajina 21
Iha grafiku leten ilustra produsaun mina matak mak produs typu tolu husi likuidos ne rasik, typu tolu mak inklui; Propane ho linha kor café, Buthane ho linha kor azul, no Condensate ho kor matak, typu tolu ne tau hamutuk mak hanaran total likuido iha linha kor metan. Total likuido mak produs iha fulan Janeiro 2014 provolta bidon rihun lima nulu (50,000) kada loron, no iha fulan dezembro 2014 tun ba bidon rihun hat nulu (40,000) kada loron. Informasaun iha grafiku komfirmadu ho informasaun mak publika iha tabela iha leten, ne’ebe deskreve produsaun kada loron iha tinan 2014 provolta (average) rihun hat nulu, virgula atus hitu resin (40,700), (ANPM, 2014, 21).
Grafik Produsaun Mina ho Gas Kampo Bayu Undan husi Janeiru – Dezembru 2015
Iha grafiku leten ilustra produsaun mina matak mak produs typu tolu husi likuidos ne rasik, typu tolu mak inklui; Propane ho linha kor café, Buthane ho linha kor azul, no Condensate ho kor matak, typu tolu ne tau hamutuk mak hanaran total likuido iha linha kor metan. Total likuido mak produs iha fulan Janeiro 2014 provolta bidon rihun lima nulu (50,000) kada loron, no iha fulan dezembro 2014 tun ba bidon rihun hat nulu (40,000) kada loron. Informasaun iha grafiku komfirmadu ho informasaun mak publika iha tabela iha leten, ne’ebe deskreve produsaun kada loron iha tinan 2014 provolta (average) rihun hat nulu, virgula atus hitu resin (40,700), (ANPM, 2014, 21).
Grafik Produsaun Mina ho Gas Kampo Bayu Undan husi Janeiru – Dezembru 2015
Fontes imajen husi Relatoriu Annual APNM 2015, Pajina 22
Bazia ba grafiku iha leten, linha kor azul performa total produsaun likuido iha loron ida nian ba fulan janeiro 2015 hamutuk bidon rihun hat nulu (40,000) no iha fulan dezembru produsaun provolta bidon rihun tolu nulu (30,000). Data hirak ne mos hanesan ho Informasaun mak iha tabela leten ne’ebe indika produsaun kada loron durante tinan 2015 nian provolta bidon rihun tolu nulu resin hitu virgule atus walu (37,800), (ANPM, 2015, 22).
Grafik Produsaun Mina ho Gas Posu Bayu Undan husi Janeiru – Dezembru 2017
Bazia ba grafiku iha leten, linha kor azul performa total produsaun likuido iha loron ida nian ba fulan janeiro 2015 hamutuk bidon rihun hat nulu (40,000) no iha fulan dezembru produsaun provolta bidon rihun tolu nulu (30,000). Data hirak ne mos hanesan ho Informasaun mak iha tabela leten ne’ebe indika produsaun kada loron durante tinan 2015 nian provolta bidon rihun tolu nulu resin hitu virgule atus walu (37,800), (ANPM, 2015, 22).
Grafik Produsaun Mina ho Gas Posu Bayu Undan husi Janeiru – Dezembru 2017
Fontes Imajen husi relatoriu annual ANPM 2017, pajina 29.
Autor la konsege hetan grafiku tinan 2016 nian tanba iha ANPM nian relatoriu annual 2016 nafatin publika grafiku mak hanesan ba tinan 2015 nian.
Grafiku iha leten hakerek produsaun kada loron husi kampo Bayu Undan nian komesa husi Janeiru ate Dezembro 2017. Iha linha kor Azul aponta produsaun nian kuantidade tun husi rihun tolu nulu (30,000) ba to’o iha rihun rua nulu (20,000). Justifikasaun iha tabela leten hatudu katak minarai Bayu Undan kada loron iha tinan 2017 halo produsaun provolta rihun rua nulu resin lima virgula atus hat resin hat nulu (25,440), (ANPM, 2017, 25).
Wainhira analiza grafiku tolu iha leten klaru iha indikasaun produsaun likuidos kada loron nian iha tinan-tinan tun kuaze rihun sanulu resin (10,000). Referensia mak deskreve tiha ona fo prediksaun iha tinan 2018 produsaun kada loron sei tun husi rihun rua nulu (20,000) ba rihun sanulu (10,000), no iha tinan 2019 produsaun sei kontinua tun husi rihun sanulu (10,000) ba Zero produsaun, entaun bele dehan katak entre fulan Junho to Julho Bayu Undan sei atinzi produsaun 5,000 barril kada loron, ne signifika Bayu Undan nian destinu mos to’o ona. Tanba KITAN nian destinu mos hakotu ho produsaun entre 5,000 – 6,000 barril kada loron. Numeros iha tabela leten hatudu wainhira KITAN komesa ninian produsaun iha tinan 2011, mina-matan refere hahu’u ho kuantidade produsaun kada loron rihun hat nulu resin (40,030) no remata iha tinan 2015, KITAN nian durasaun tinan lima deit wainhira kuantidade produsaun hahu’u ho rihun hat nulu (40,030) kada loron, (ANPM, 2011, 33). Iha parte hanesan Bayu Undan mos atinzi sira nian produsaun kada loron rihun hat nulu, resin atus hitu (40,700) iha tinan 2014 (ANPM, 2014, 21), signifika mos iha tinan lima nian laran (2019) aktividades produsaun iha area refere tama ona ba faze desmantelementu.
Transferensia Fundo Petrolifero
Sekuandu produsaun husi Bayu Undan hotu ona, saida mak akontese transferensia Fundo Petrolifero? Bazeia ba Lei Fundo Petrolifero nian iha artigu numero 8 kona ba Transferensia ne’ebe hakerek hanesan tuir mai;
Artigu 8
Rekerementu ba Tranferensia
Laiha transferensia ida mak bele halo husi Fundo Petrolifero iha tinan fiscal nian laran, wainhira Governu seidauk hato’o ba Parlemento Nasional relatorio hirak mak hanesan;
(a) Espesifiku kona ba Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo ba tinan fiscal ne’ebe transfere ne atu halo;
(b) Espesifiku kona ba Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo husi tinan fiscal ne’ebe liu ba; no
(c) Sertifikadu husi Auditor Independente kona ba Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo ne’ebe refere ba paragraph (a) ho (b) mak iha leten.
Fontes: Lei Fundo Petrolifero No 9/2005, Pajina 5.
Artigu 8 klaramente hakerek uniku transferensia husi Fundo Petrolifero ba Orsamento Jeral do estado mak liu husi kalkulasaun Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo (RSE), hanesan deskreve iha paragraf a), b), ho c) mak temi tiha ona. Tuir mai akompaña hamutuk oinsa halo kalkulasaun ba RSE, haktuir peritu husi Fundo Monetario Internasional, Alistar Watson ne’ebe hato’o apresentasaun ba grupo Sociadade Civil Timor-Leste nian iha tinan 2010.
Autor la konsege hetan grafiku tinan 2016 nian tanba iha ANPM nian relatoriu annual 2016 nafatin publika grafiku mak hanesan ba tinan 2015 nian.
Grafiku iha leten hakerek produsaun kada loron husi kampo Bayu Undan nian komesa husi Janeiru ate Dezembro 2017. Iha linha kor Azul aponta produsaun nian kuantidade tun husi rihun tolu nulu (30,000) ba to’o iha rihun rua nulu (20,000). Justifikasaun iha tabela leten hatudu katak minarai Bayu Undan kada loron iha tinan 2017 halo produsaun provolta rihun rua nulu resin lima virgula atus hat resin hat nulu (25,440), (ANPM, 2017, 25).
Wainhira analiza grafiku tolu iha leten klaru iha indikasaun produsaun likuidos kada loron nian iha tinan-tinan tun kuaze rihun sanulu resin (10,000). Referensia mak deskreve tiha ona fo prediksaun iha tinan 2018 produsaun kada loron sei tun husi rihun rua nulu (20,000) ba rihun sanulu (10,000), no iha tinan 2019 produsaun sei kontinua tun husi rihun sanulu (10,000) ba Zero produsaun, entaun bele dehan katak entre fulan Junho to Julho Bayu Undan sei atinzi produsaun 5,000 barril kada loron, ne signifika Bayu Undan nian destinu mos to’o ona. Tanba KITAN nian destinu mos hakotu ho produsaun entre 5,000 – 6,000 barril kada loron. Numeros iha tabela leten hatudu wainhira KITAN komesa ninian produsaun iha tinan 2011, mina-matan refere hahu’u ho kuantidade produsaun kada loron rihun hat nulu resin (40,030) no remata iha tinan 2015, KITAN nian durasaun tinan lima deit wainhira kuantidade produsaun hahu’u ho rihun hat nulu (40,030) kada loron, (ANPM, 2011, 33). Iha parte hanesan Bayu Undan mos atinzi sira nian produsaun kada loron rihun hat nulu, resin atus hitu (40,700) iha tinan 2014 (ANPM, 2014, 21), signifika mos iha tinan lima nian laran (2019) aktividades produsaun iha area refere tama ona ba faze desmantelementu.
Transferensia Fundo Petrolifero
Sekuandu produsaun husi Bayu Undan hotu ona, saida mak akontese transferensia Fundo Petrolifero? Bazeia ba Lei Fundo Petrolifero nian iha artigu numero 8 kona ba Transferensia ne’ebe hakerek hanesan tuir mai;
Artigu 8
Rekerementu ba Tranferensia
Laiha transferensia ida mak bele halo husi Fundo Petrolifero iha tinan fiscal nian laran, wainhira Governu seidauk hato’o ba Parlemento Nasional relatorio hirak mak hanesan;
(a) Espesifiku kona ba Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo ba tinan fiscal ne’ebe transfere ne atu halo;
(b) Espesifiku kona ba Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo husi tinan fiscal ne’ebe liu ba; no
(c) Sertifikadu husi Auditor Independente kona ba Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo ne’ebe refere ba paragraph (a) ho (b) mak iha leten.
Fontes: Lei Fundo Petrolifero No 9/2005, Pajina 5.
Artigu 8 klaramente hakerek uniku transferensia husi Fundo Petrolifero ba Orsamento Jeral do estado mak liu husi kalkulasaun Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo (RSE), hanesan deskreve iha paragraf a), b), ho c) mak temi tiha ona. Tuir mai akompaña hamutuk oinsa halo kalkulasaun ba RSE, haktuir peritu husi Fundo Monetario Internasional, Alistar Watson ne’ebe hato’o apresentasaun ba grupo Sociadade Civil Timor-Leste nian iha tinan 2010.
Fontes Lao Hamutuk website, (Watson, 2010).
Tabela iha leten hato’o ijemplo iha tinan sanulu nian laran, sekuandu receitas husi Tasi Timor hatama deit miliaun atus lima (500) entaun tinan-tinan receitas so fornese deit atus ida (100) durante tinan lima dahuluk. Tabela iha leten hato’o ijemplo retornu investementu aumenta 3% tinan-tinan, no numerous iha tabele leten mos halo kalkulasaun bazeia ba 3% Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo. Financial Assets signifika total investementu mak iha Fundo Petrolifero (FP), iha tabela ne ilustra katak iha tinan primeiro; assets iha FP seidauk iha (0), receitas husi Tasi laran hetan deit miliaun $100, no transferensia ba OJE miliaun $14, entaun balansu iha konta Fundo Petrolifero hela deit miliaun $86. Retornu investimentu 3% iha tinan primeiro husi miliaun $100 nian mak miliaun $3. Iha tinan segundu; receitas tama mak; (100 + 100 - 14 = 186 x 3% = 5), iha tabela mos fosai wainhira receitas latama tanba produsaun la lao ona, ho retornu investementu 3%, no sekarik Parlamentu Nasional disiplina aprova Fundo Petrolifero bazeia ba 3 % RSE nian, e halo transferensia ba OJE laliu miliaun $14 tinan-tinan, entaun analiza husi Alistair Watson nian sei la falha, signifika minarai maran mos Fundo Petrolifero Sei bele kontinua sustenta Orsamento Jeral do Estado iha futuru.
Iha realidade estadu Timor-Leste dala barak kontinua halo transferensia Fundo Petrolifero liu tiha kalkulasaun 3 % husi Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo. Tuir mai tabela kraik sei hatudu durante ne osan hira ona mak estadu foti husi Fundo Petrolifero.
Tabela iha leten hato’o ijemplo iha tinan sanulu nian laran, sekuandu receitas husi Tasi Timor hatama deit miliaun atus lima (500) entaun tinan-tinan receitas so fornese deit atus ida (100) durante tinan lima dahuluk. Tabela iha leten hato’o ijemplo retornu investementu aumenta 3% tinan-tinan, no numerous iha tabele leten mos halo kalkulasaun bazeia ba 3% Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo. Financial Assets signifika total investementu mak iha Fundo Petrolifero (FP), iha tabela ne ilustra katak iha tinan primeiro; assets iha FP seidauk iha (0), receitas husi Tasi laran hetan deit miliaun $100, no transferensia ba OJE miliaun $14, entaun balansu iha konta Fundo Petrolifero hela deit miliaun $86. Retornu investimentu 3% iha tinan primeiro husi miliaun $100 nian mak miliaun $3. Iha tinan segundu; receitas tama mak; (100 + 100 - 14 = 186 x 3% = 5), iha tabela mos fosai wainhira receitas latama tanba produsaun la lao ona, ho retornu investementu 3%, no sekarik Parlamentu Nasional disiplina aprova Fundo Petrolifero bazeia ba 3 % RSE nian, e halo transferensia ba OJE laliu miliaun $14 tinan-tinan, entaun analiza husi Alistair Watson nian sei la falha, signifika minarai maran mos Fundo Petrolifero Sei bele kontinua sustenta Orsamento Jeral do Estado iha futuru.
Iha realidade estadu Timor-Leste dala barak kontinua halo transferensia Fundo Petrolifero liu tiha kalkulasaun 3 % husi Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo. Tuir mai tabela kraik sei hatudu durante ne osan hira ona mak estadu foti husi Fundo Petrolifero.
Fontes; Livros do Orsamento Jeral do Estado & Relatorios Annual Fundo Petrolifero
Tabela iha leten, deskreve informasaun detailho komesa husi tinan 2005 – 2018 , informasaun hirak ne mak inklui numero total Fundo Petrolifero nian, Gastu ba Orsamento Jeral do Estado, no receitas husi Fundo Petrolifero ba Orsamento Jeral do Estado, inklui mos informasaun sobre receitas domestica. Iha koluna dahuluk ilustra balansu total husi Fundo Petrolifero iha tinan 2005 wainhira halo investementu ba dahuluk komesa ho osan miliaun $204.6, (Ministerio das Financas, 2007, 4), no balansu ikus iha tinan 2018 nian mak Biliaun $16.927,3 (Ministerio das Financas, 2018, 52).
Iha koluna segundu apresenta kona ba retornu investementu husi Fundo Petrolifero, no kuaze tinan tinan sempre iha retornu positivo maibe mos iha tinan balun indika retornu negative ijemplo mak iha tinan fiscal 2005-06 retornu investementu lakon osan miliaun lima virgula atus walu tolu nulu resin ida ($5,831) (Ministerio das Financas, 2007, 5) no iha tinan 2015 lakon osan miliaun rua nulu resin ida virgule zero nen nulu ($21,060), (Ministerio das Financas, 2015, 25) .
Bazeia ba Lei Fundo Petrolifero No 12/2012, artigu 15 kona ba Regras de Investementu, paragraph 1) deside Fundo Petrolifero halo investementu konservativu la menus liu 50 % iha US Treasury Bonds. Iha parte seluk, paragraph 2) hateten bele halo investementu la liu 50% iha Dezenvolvementu Merkadu Financeiru (Equities), (Ministerio das Financas, 2011). Banco Central Timor-Leste responsabliza ba 41% husi investementu total husi fundu, no 59% husi Fundo jere husi jestor privado sira seluk hanesan; Bank for International Settlements (10%), Alliance Bernstein (5%), Wellinton (5%), State Street Global Advisors (17), Black Rock (17%), no Schroders (5%), (Ministerio das Financas, 2017,2).
Koluna tuir fali relata informasaun detalho kona ba total transfarensia tinan-tinan husi Fundo Petrolifero ba Orsamento Jeral do Estado. Alende koluna seluk hakerek informasaun kona ba numeros osan mak transfere bazeia ba 3% Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo. Iha koluna seluk fali fosai numeros osan mak foti liu husi platform 3% RSE nian, iha koluna ne mos, iha tinan balun transferensia husi Fundo Petrolifero la liu RSE, ijemplo mak iha tinan fiscal 2006-07, 2007, 2013, ho razaun tanba kalkulasaun RSE bot liu fali transferensia ne’ebe persija.
Informasaun balun iha tabela leten hakerek kona ba total gastus Orsamentu Jeral do Estadu kada tinan hahu’u husi tinan fiscal 2005-06 ate 2018, informasaun seluk iha koluna tuir fali kona ba prosentazem husi alokasaun Fundo Petrolifero ba iha OJE provolta entre 80 -90%. Koluna ikus husi tabela iha leten mos indika receitas domestica seidauk bele atinzi 20% husi total Orsamento Jeral do Estado. Mesmo Iha VI governu konstitusional kria tiha ona ekipa ida ho naran Komisaun Reforma Fiskal, maibe implementasaun husi politika ne foin mak implementa, ninian ijemplo mak hanesan sistema pagamentu elektronika TPA/POS (Point of Sale Terminal) ne’ebe implementa tiha ona iha Alfandega iha loron 30 de Julho 2018, (Ministerio das Financas, 2018).
Konkluzaun
Data ho informasaun sira mak hato’o tiha ona iha artiklu ne fo hanoin ba ita Produsaun husi Kampo Bayu Undan iha posibilidade bot atu maran iha tinan 2019. Sekuandu laiha tan ona receitas husi industria extraktivu, Fundo Petrolifero sei depende deit ba iha retornu investementu fundo ne rasik. Wainhira Estadu Timor-Leste kontinua foti osan husi Fundo ne liu 3% RSE nian ho montante Biliaun 1.5 entaun signifika ezistensia Fundo nian sei la to’o 2028. Maibe sekuandu Orsamentu Jeral do Estadu sei atu gasta provolta biliaun 1.2 entaun fundo refere sei bele auguenta to’o tinan 2032. Mas kuandu governu atu foti biliaun 5-6 tan para halo investementu seluk, entaun durasaun husi fundo sei menus liu tan husi tinan sanulu nian laran. Evidensia mak iha artiklu hatudu numeros receitas domestica seidauk aumenta maksimal, espera katak ho mekanismo foun kona ba pagamentu elektroniku bele hasae rendimentu receitas domestica ba iha kofre do estado.
Referensia
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu., 2008, ‘Annual Report 2008’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-2008%2 0ANP%20Annual%20Report/$File/2008%20ANP%20Annual%20Report%20_Final.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2009, ‘Annual Report 2009’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-2009%20Annual%20Report/$File/FINAL2009%20Annual%20Reportt_FOR%20PRINT_C.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2010, ‘Annual Report 2010’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-2010%20ANP%20ANNUAL%20REPORT/$File/2010%20ANP%20ANNUAL%20REPORT.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2011, ‘Annual Report 2011’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-2011%20Annual%20Report/$File/ANP%202011%20Annual%20Report.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2012, ‘Annual Report 2012’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-2012%20ANP%20ANNUAL%20REPORT/$File/2012%20ANP%20ANNUAL%20REPORT.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2013, ‘Annual Report 2013’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-FINAL%20-%20Annual%20Report%202013-ENGLISH/$File/FINAL%20-%20Annual%20Report%202013-ENGLISH.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2014, ‘Annual Report 2014’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-Annual%20Report%202014%20rev%20English/$File/Annual%20Report%202014%20rev%20English.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2015, ‘Annual Report 2015’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-RO-Annual%20Report%202015%20ENGLISH%20FINAL/$File/RO-Annual%20Report%202015%20ENGLISH%20FINAL.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2016, ‘Annual Report 2016’, Available at http://www.anpm.tl/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Annual-Report-2016-ENGLISH.pdf
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2017, ‘Annual Report 2017’, Available at http://www.anpm.tl/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Annual-Report-2017-ENGLISH.pdf
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2017, ‘Lafaek Field Production Data’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/pgLafaekDataGasListHTML
Ministerio das Financas., 2006, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2005-2006’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2005-06_English.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2007, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2006-2007’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2006-07_English.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2007, ‘ Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2007 Transition’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2007_-_Transition_Period_English.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2008, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2008’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2008_English.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2009, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2009’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/category/documents-and-forms/petroleum-fund-documents/petroleum-fund-annual-reports/?lang=en
Ministerio das Financas., 2010, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2010’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_for_Financial_Year_2010_En.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2011, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2011’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Petroleum_Fund_Annual-Report_2011-EN.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2011, ‘Primeira alteração à Lei n.º 9/2005, de 3 de Agosto, Lei do Fundo Petrolífero’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Lei_No-_12-_2011_Primeira_altera%C3%A7%C3%A3o_%C3%A0_Lei_No-_9_2005_Lei_do_Fundo_Petrol%C3%ADfero.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2012, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2012’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2012_En.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2013, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2013’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/2013_Complete_Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2013-eng.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2014, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2014’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2014-Eng-ver-1.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2014, ‘State Budget Book No.1 2014’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/FINAL_20131024_Budget_Book_1_EN_16.10.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2015, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2015’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2015.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2015, ‘Rectification Budget Book No.1 2015’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/FINAL_BB1OR_Eng-2015.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2015, ‘State Budget Book No.1 2015’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/BB1_2015_English_31_Jan_2015_DNO.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2016, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2016’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/English-Final-Report-2016.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2016, ‘State Budget Book No.1 2016’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Final_-Final_BB1_2016_Rectification_24_6_2016_English.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2017, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2017’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/PF-FINAL-REPORT-2017.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2017, ‘State Budget Book No.1 2017’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Final_Final_BB1_Final_English_01Fev2017.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2018, ‘State Budget Book No.1 2018’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/BB1_Eng-2018.pdf page 52
Ministerio das Financas., 2018, ‘Custom Authority Public Notice’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/CA-Public-Notice-1_-Electronic-Payment_ENG.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2018, ‘Fiscal Reform Commission Brochure’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Fiscal-Reform-Commission-Brochure.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2018, ‘The Custom Authority Brochure’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/The-new-Customs-Authority-Brochure.pdf
Parlamento Nasional., ‘Petroleum Fund Law No.9/2005’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Petroleum-Fund-Law-English.pdf
Rogoff, K., 2016, ‘Whats behind the drop in oil prices’, World Economic Forum. Available at https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/what-s-behind-the-drop-in-oil-prices/
Watson, A., 2010, ‘Seminar for Civil Society: Timor-Leste Fiscal Regimes & ESI Calculation’, Available at https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetFund/revision/Watson16Aug2010En.pdf
Tabela iha leten, deskreve informasaun detailho komesa husi tinan 2005 – 2018 , informasaun hirak ne mak inklui numero total Fundo Petrolifero nian, Gastu ba Orsamento Jeral do Estado, no receitas husi Fundo Petrolifero ba Orsamento Jeral do Estado, inklui mos informasaun sobre receitas domestica. Iha koluna dahuluk ilustra balansu total husi Fundo Petrolifero iha tinan 2005 wainhira halo investementu ba dahuluk komesa ho osan miliaun $204.6, (Ministerio das Financas, 2007, 4), no balansu ikus iha tinan 2018 nian mak Biliaun $16.927,3 (Ministerio das Financas, 2018, 52).
Iha koluna segundu apresenta kona ba retornu investementu husi Fundo Petrolifero, no kuaze tinan tinan sempre iha retornu positivo maibe mos iha tinan balun indika retornu negative ijemplo mak iha tinan fiscal 2005-06 retornu investementu lakon osan miliaun lima virgula atus walu tolu nulu resin ida ($5,831) (Ministerio das Financas, 2007, 5) no iha tinan 2015 lakon osan miliaun rua nulu resin ida virgule zero nen nulu ($21,060), (Ministerio das Financas, 2015, 25) .
Bazeia ba Lei Fundo Petrolifero No 12/2012, artigu 15 kona ba Regras de Investementu, paragraph 1) deside Fundo Petrolifero halo investementu konservativu la menus liu 50 % iha US Treasury Bonds. Iha parte seluk, paragraph 2) hateten bele halo investementu la liu 50% iha Dezenvolvementu Merkadu Financeiru (Equities), (Ministerio das Financas, 2011). Banco Central Timor-Leste responsabliza ba 41% husi investementu total husi fundu, no 59% husi Fundo jere husi jestor privado sira seluk hanesan; Bank for International Settlements (10%), Alliance Bernstein (5%), Wellinton (5%), State Street Global Advisors (17), Black Rock (17%), no Schroders (5%), (Ministerio das Financas, 2017,2).
Koluna tuir fali relata informasaun detalho kona ba total transfarensia tinan-tinan husi Fundo Petrolifero ba Orsamento Jeral do Estado. Alende koluna seluk hakerek informasaun kona ba numeros osan mak transfere bazeia ba 3% Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo. Iha koluna seluk fali fosai numeros osan mak foti liu husi platform 3% RSE nian, iha koluna ne mos, iha tinan balun transferensia husi Fundo Petrolifero la liu RSE, ijemplo mak iha tinan fiscal 2006-07, 2007, 2013, ho razaun tanba kalkulasaun RSE bot liu fali transferensia ne’ebe persija.
Informasaun balun iha tabela leten hakerek kona ba total gastus Orsamentu Jeral do Estadu kada tinan hahu’u husi tinan fiscal 2005-06 ate 2018, informasaun seluk iha koluna tuir fali kona ba prosentazem husi alokasaun Fundo Petrolifero ba iha OJE provolta entre 80 -90%. Koluna ikus husi tabela iha leten mos indika receitas domestica seidauk bele atinzi 20% husi total Orsamento Jeral do Estado. Mesmo Iha VI governu konstitusional kria tiha ona ekipa ida ho naran Komisaun Reforma Fiskal, maibe implementasaun husi politika ne foin mak implementa, ninian ijemplo mak hanesan sistema pagamentu elektronika TPA/POS (Point of Sale Terminal) ne’ebe implementa tiha ona iha Alfandega iha loron 30 de Julho 2018, (Ministerio das Financas, 2018).
Konkluzaun
Data ho informasaun sira mak hato’o tiha ona iha artiklu ne fo hanoin ba ita Produsaun husi Kampo Bayu Undan iha posibilidade bot atu maran iha tinan 2019. Sekuandu laiha tan ona receitas husi industria extraktivu, Fundo Petrolifero sei depende deit ba iha retornu investementu fundo ne rasik. Wainhira Estadu Timor-Leste kontinua foti osan husi Fundo ne liu 3% RSE nian ho montante Biliaun 1.5 entaun signifika ezistensia Fundo nian sei la to’o 2028. Maibe sekuandu Orsamentu Jeral do Estadu sei atu gasta provolta biliaun 1.2 entaun fundo refere sei bele auguenta to’o tinan 2032. Mas kuandu governu atu foti biliaun 5-6 tan para halo investementu seluk, entaun durasaun husi fundo sei menus liu tan husi tinan sanulu nian laran. Evidensia mak iha artiklu hatudu numeros receitas domestica seidauk aumenta maksimal, espera katak ho mekanismo foun kona ba pagamentu elektroniku bele hasae rendimentu receitas domestica ba iha kofre do estado.
Referensia
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu., 2008, ‘Annual Report 2008’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-2008%2 0ANP%20Annual%20Report/$File/2008%20ANP%20Annual%20Report%20_Final.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2009, ‘Annual Report 2009’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-2009%20Annual%20Report/$File/FINAL2009%20Annual%20Reportt_FOR%20PRINT_C.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2010, ‘Annual Report 2010’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-2010%20ANP%20ANNUAL%20REPORT/$File/2010%20ANP%20ANNUAL%20REPORT.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2011, ‘Annual Report 2011’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-2011%20Annual%20Report/$File/ANP%202011%20Annual%20Report.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2012, ‘Annual Report 2012’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-2012%20ANP%20ANNUAL%20REPORT/$File/2012%20ANP%20ANNUAL%20REPORT.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2013, ‘Annual Report 2013’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-FINAL%20-%20Annual%20Report%202013-ENGLISH/$File/FINAL%20-%20Annual%20Report%202013-ENGLISH.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2014, ‘Annual Report 2014’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-Annual%20Report%202014%20rev%20English/$File/Annual%20Report%202014%20rev%20English.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2015, ‘Annual Report 2015’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/Resource-RO-Annual%20Report%202015%20ENGLISH%20FINAL/$File/RO-Annual%20Report%202015%20ENGLISH%20FINAL.pdf?openelement
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2016, ‘Annual Report 2016’, Available at http://www.anpm.tl/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Annual-Report-2016-ENGLISH.pdf
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2017, ‘Annual Report 2017’, Available at http://www.anpm.tl/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Annual-Report-2017-ENGLISH.pdf
Autoridade Nasional Do Petroleu E Minerais., 2017, ‘Lafaek Field Production Data’, Available at http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/pgLafaekDataGasListHTML
Ministerio das Financas., 2006, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2005-2006’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2005-06_English.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2007, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2006-2007’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2006-07_English.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2007, ‘ Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2007 Transition’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2007_-_Transition_Period_English.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2008, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2008’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2008_English.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2009, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2009’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/category/documents-and-forms/petroleum-fund-documents/petroleum-fund-annual-reports/?lang=en
Ministerio das Financas., 2010, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2010’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_for_Financial_Year_2010_En.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2011, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2011’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Petroleum_Fund_Annual-Report_2011-EN.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2011, ‘Primeira alteração à Lei n.º 9/2005, de 3 de Agosto, Lei do Fundo Petrolífero’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Lei_No-_12-_2011_Primeira_altera%C3%A7%C3%A3o_%C3%A0_Lei_No-_9_2005_Lei_do_Fundo_Petrol%C3%ADfero.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2012, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2012’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2012_En.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2013, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2013’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/2013_Complete_Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2013-eng.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2014, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2014’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2014-Eng-ver-1.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2014, ‘State Budget Book No.1 2014’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/FINAL_20131024_Budget_Book_1_EN_16.10.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2015, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2015’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Petroleum_Fund_Annual_Report_2015.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2015, ‘Rectification Budget Book No.1 2015’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/FINAL_BB1OR_Eng-2015.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2015, ‘State Budget Book No.1 2015’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/BB1_2015_English_31_Jan_2015_DNO.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2016, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2016’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/English-Final-Report-2016.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2016, ‘State Budget Book No.1 2016’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Final_-Final_BB1_2016_Rectification_24_6_2016_English.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2017, ‘Petroleum Fund Annual Report 2017’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/PF-FINAL-REPORT-2017.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2017, ‘State Budget Book No.1 2017’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Final_Final_BB1_Final_English_01Fev2017.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2018, ‘State Budget Book No.1 2018’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/BB1_Eng-2018.pdf page 52
Ministerio das Financas., 2018, ‘Custom Authority Public Notice’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/CA-Public-Notice-1_-Electronic-Payment_ENG.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2018, ‘Fiscal Reform Commission Brochure’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Fiscal-Reform-Commission-Brochure.pdf
Ministerio das Financas., 2018, ‘The Custom Authority Brochure’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/The-new-Customs-Authority-Brochure.pdf
Parlamento Nasional., ‘Petroleum Fund Law No.9/2005’, Available at https://www.mof.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Petroleum-Fund-Law-English.pdf
Rogoff, K., 2016, ‘Whats behind the drop in oil prices’, World Economic Forum. Available at https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/what-s-behind-the-drop-in-oil-prices/
Watson, A., 2010, ‘Seminar for Civil Society: Timor-Leste Fiscal Regimes & ESI Calculation’, Available at https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetFund/revision/Watson16Aug2010En.pdf