Timor-Leste economic policy forum

Boa Viagem Mana Shirley Shackleton

1/16/2023

Shirley Shackleton, moris iha Adelaide, South Australia iha tinan 1931 kaben ho Greg Shackleton iha tinan 1966, no iha oan mane ida ho naran Evan Shackleton.

Depois akontesmentu massacre Balibo, Shirley Shackleton lakon ninian kaben Greg ne’ebé halao knar hanesan jornalista chanel 7 hodi mai halo kobertura ba invasaun Indonesia iha Timor iha tinan 1975. Akontesementu ne’e kunesidu ho Masacre Balibo five, ne’ebé hamate jornalista nain 5 husi Australia no Nova Zelandia. Hanesan feto faluk husi akontesementu Balibo five, Mana Shirley kontinua buka lia los no luta kontra impunidade. Iha tempu naruk nian laran hodi luta buka lia los, Shirley Shackleton hakerek mos livro ida ho titulu “The Circle of Silence” ne’ebé publika iha tinan 2010.

Iha tinan 1989 wainhira Amu Papa Joao Paulo II halo vizita mai Timor, Shirley Shackleton mos marka prezensa iha Tasi tolu hodi konfronta direitamente Eis Jeneral Benny Moerdani no husu tuir kona ba ninian laen ne’ebé mate iha Balibo. Mana Shirley mos involve iha protestu wainhira ro’o Lusitania planu atu halao vizita mai Timor iha tinan 1992, (Alcock, H, A., 2023).

Mana Shirley nian kontribuisaun apoiu mai luta Timor nian laos deit husi uluk, maibe kontinua ate tempo ida agora wainhira Timor-Leste kontra governu Australia iha prosesu deside linha fronteira maritima. Momentum ikus liu mak iha tinan 2019, wainhira Mana Shirley Hamutuk ho Movementu Kontra Okupasaun Tasi Timor hodi kontra desizaun governu Australia ne’ebé hatama Bernard Collaery no Withness K ba prizaun. Iha loron 30 fulan Agostu 2019 asaun ne’ebé organizadu husi MKOTT, iha situasaun apertadu Mana Shirley prontu entrega petisaun husi MKOTT ho asinatura rihun 5 resin ba iha Primeiru Ministro Australia, Scott Morrison iha edifisiu ministeriu das financas, aitarak laran.

Maktoban husik hela mundo ne’e iha loron 15 de Janeiru 2023 ho idade (91) anos. Boa viagem e lao ho maromak Mana Shirley!!

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Materia Ekonomia ba Klase Aktivista (Power Point)

12/8/2018

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Saida lolos mak akontese iha Yemen neba?

10/25/2018

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Saida lolos mak akontese iha Yemen neba?

Tradusaun husi kompilasaun artiklus sira mak iha internet

Tradutor; Tomas Freitas

Guerra Civil

Krizi iha Yemen komesa iha tinan 2011-2012 wainhira revolusaun kontra Presidente Ali Abdulah Saleh, nebe ukun Yemen durante dekada tolu resin, (Hendawi, 2014). Depois Saleh resigna an iha inisiu 2012 hanesan parte husi agrementu mediasaun entre governu Yemen ho grupo opozisaun sira, governu temporariumente lidera husi Presidente Saleh nian Vice-Presidente, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, maibe governu refere susar atu hakoak fraksaun politika iha nasaun laran, ne’ebe ameasadu husi Al-Qaeda iha Peninsula Arabian nian no mos hetan presaun husi Militante Houthi nian ne’ebe kunyesidu hanesan grupo rebeldes mak sempre konfrontativu ho militar Yemen iha Norte Yemen iha tinan 2004-2015, (Al Arabiya, 2015). Iha 2014, Guerileiros Houthi domina capital sidade Sana’a no obriga Vice-Presidente Hadi hodi negosia “governu unidade” hamutuk ho fraksaun politika sira seluk. Grupo rebeldes kontinua halo presaun ba governu mak fraku ate Hadi nian palacio presidente no mos residensia privado hetan atake husi grupo militant, depois de atakasaun Hadi mos halo resignasaun hamutuk ho ninian gabinete ministros sira iha fulan Janeiro 2015. Hafoin tiha resignasaun liu fulan ida nian laran, grupo rebeldes Houthis deklara katak sira mak agora kontrola governu, grupo ne mos dissolve tiha Parlamentu no mos instala Komite Revolusionariu Interino ne’ebe lidera husi Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, primo husi Houthi nian lider Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, (Middle East Eye., 2015). Iha momentu neba mos eis Vice-Presidente Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi konsege halai sai ba sidade Aden, ne’ebe Nia deklara nudar baze lejitimidade ba Presidente Yemen nian, Hadi mos proklama sidade Aden nudar capital temporariu Yemen nian, Nia mos bolu ninian apoyante sira inklui membro governu official no mos forsa militar balun hodi ba hamutuk ho Nia iha sidade Aden, (Simeon, 2015). Iha loron 27 Marsu 2015, BBC halo reportazem katak forsa rebeldes konsege ataka no okupa sidade Aden, no Hadi konsege salva an halai ba Riyadh capital nasaun vizinho Saudi Arabiah, la kleur husi ida ne, Governu Saudi Arabia mos atake kedas Yemen ho sira nian forsa Aero, (BBC, 2015). Resutadu husi atake ida ne hamosu kedas guera civil entre governu Hadi nian no rebeldes Houthi sira. Desde 2017 grupo separatista seluk mak hanesan al-hirak al-Janoubi ne’ebe kunyesidu ho naran grupo Konsellu Tranzisaun Sul nian (Southern Transitional Council) mos kontinua kontra Governu Hadi nian.

Photo Kredit: Salah David

Klima protestu ne’ebe kunyesidu ho naran ‘The Arab Spring’ la persija tempo naruk atu to’o iha Yemen depois de revolusaun iha Tunisia. Molok ida ne Yemen nudar nasaun ida ne’ebe kiak aumenta tan ninian governasaun mak kunyesidu koruptu, inklui arma kilat barak ne’ebe espalha iha civil nian liman. Iha tinan 2011, nasaun ne enfrenta tiha ona konfrontasaun husi grupo Al-Qaeda ne’ebe ligasaun ho grupo separatista iha parte Sul, alende ne mos konfronta ho grupo rebeldes Zaydi Shia iha parte Norte nian. Historikamente nudar nasaun Yemen foin mak unidos iha tinan 1990, depois de diferensias entre Norte ho Sul.

Krizi Ekolojia

Politika instabilidade iha Yemen akontese tanba mos razaun balun husi krizi ekolojia iha nasaun refere. Mayoria (Rata-rata) (average) sidadaun Yemen so hetan aksesu ba 140 m3/tinan (metro kuadradu kubik) bee mos kada tinan, kompara ho nasaun seluk iha Mediu Oriente 1000 m3/tinan, standard internasional 1700 m3/tinan, (Climate Change, 2001). Fontes bee mos ba nasaun ne mai husi perfurasaun bee rai okos, maibe ninian kuantidade bee rai okos tun bebeik kada tinan, hanesan ijemplo iha sidade Sana’a, perfurasaun bee rai-okos iha tinan 1970 bele to’o metro 30 hetan tiha ona bee mos, maibe iha tinan 2012 perfurasaun bee rai-okos persija to’o metro 1200 mak foin hetan bee, (Krista, 2010). Problema ne akontese tanba governu la regulariza utilizasaun bee rai-okos, no ida ne akontese molok krizi politika iha tinan 2011. Iha peritus barak mak halo tiha prediksaun katak Yemen sei sai nasaun primeiro mak bee mos laiha tanba ema hotu halo prefurasaun ba bee rai-okos. Agrikultor sira utiliza 90% bee rai-okos mesmo que kontribui deit 6% ba kresimentu ekonomia rai-laran. Kontrariomente ho ida ne, porsaun bot liu ema Yemen sira depende liu ba agrikultura kiik ou agrikultura skala subsistensia. Metade husi fornesementu bee mos ba agrikultura mak utiliza hodi rega “Khat” species aitahan ida hodi mama, atu hanesan (bua mak ferik ho katuas sira gosta mama), peritu sira dehan katak “Khat” ne hanesan narkotika ida ba ema Yemen sira hodi nata (chew). Ne signifika mesmo que Yemen nasaun ida mak menus bee, metade husi populasaun laiha aksesu ba ai-han, bee mak mai husi rai-okos so para uza hodi rega 45% agrikultor mak kuda ‘”Khat” ne’ebe la’os hahan.

Seguranca bee mos iha ninian impaktu direita ba iha estabilidade politika Yemen nian. Ema iha liur rona liu kona ba “Proxy War” funu entre faksaun ne’ebe balun hetan suporta husi nasaun seluk, maibe bazeia ba Jornal diario Yemen nian Al-Thawra, katak 70% - 80% konflito iha nasaun ne relasiona ho kestaun bee mos. Ministro interior Yemen nian deklara katak kazu hadaun malun bee mos ho rai resulta ona ema nain rihun hat (4,000) mak mate kada tinan, numero ne bot liu fali numero terorista sira nian, (Heffez, 2013). Iha rejiaun ida naran Al-Jawf Governorate, nebe sai hanesan baze grupo separatista Militant Shi’a Islamist, disputa oho malun tanba bee mos akontese besik tinan tolu nulu ona seidauk resolve, (IRIN., 2012). Iha tinan 2007, Ministro Bee no Rekurso Naturais sujere ba populasaun mak hela iha sidade Sana’a atu hodi evakua tanba bee mos laiha, (Kirby, 2007). Mesmo que governu fo orientasaun tiha ona ba evakuasaun, maibe molok ne sidade refere rahun tiha ona tanba sidade ne sai fatin ba terenu batalha, e ema ida idak sente la seguru no evakua an rasik ba fatin seluk. Alende, katastropi enviromentu nian estraga tiha ona tiha ona Yemen, iha tinan 2015, Yemen mos hetan destroy husi iha anin fuik cyclone rua ; primeiro mak Cyclone Chapala, segundu mak Cyclone Megh ne’ebe estraga plantasaun ai-han agrikultor sira nian, (Oakford, 2015).

Ephidemic Cholera

Moras Cholera komesa hadaet ema durante Guerra civil akontese iha Yemen. Iha Julho 2017, Kordenador Nasoens Unidas ne’ebe toma konta kestaun humanitaria relata katak iha tinan 2017 kazu Cholera atinzi ona liu 320,000 kazu, (Falk, 2017). UNO mos fo sala Guerra civil, ne’ebe mak akontese no grupo combatente balun hetan suporta husi forsa internasional balun, wainhira tama iha fulan Outubro 2017, numero ema no labarik mak kona moras Cholera atinzi liu kazu rihun atus walu resin 800,000 (Lyons, 2017).

Konkluzaun

Tradusaun husi artiklu mak iha leten ne mesmo ladun detalho maibe konsege ilustra saida mak akontese lolos iha Yemen neba. Guerra Civil nebe akontese entre grupo mak pro Governu no mos grupo separatista sira oho malun tanba deit hadau malun atu kaer poder, no grupo balun hetan apoiu husi forsa internasional. Alende Guerra Civil, kestaun hadauk malun bee mos sai tiha ona problema bot molok grupo armada sira oho malun. Artiklu ne mos eskreve, wainhira governu ida mak la regula ho diak perfurasaun bee rai okos no husik deit sidadaun ida-idak livre hodi fura ninian bee mos, Konsekuensiamente bee rai okos ninian kuantidade sai menus liu tanba hahalok sira ne. Tanba husi hadauk malun bee mos, ikus mai resulta populasaun barak mak hetan moras epidemic Cholera tanba deit bee mak sira konsumu kontaminadu tiha ona ho foer.

Referensia

Al Arabiya., 2015, ‘Al-Qaeda thrieves in Yemen amid weak security, stalled dialogue’, retrieved 6 Feb 2015.
BBC., 2015, ‘President Hadi Leaves Yemen as Saudi-led raids continue’, retrieved 27 May 2015.
Falk, P., 2017, ‘ U.N. Warned “We should all feel deeply guilty” as Yemenies dies’, CBS News. Retreived 13 July 2017.
Heffez, A., 2013, ‘ How Yemen Chewed Itself Dry’, Foreign Affairs. Retrieved 17 April 2015.
Hendawi, H., 2014, ‘Yemen’s crisis reflects arc of Arab Springs revolts’, retrieved 8 Feb 2015.
IRIN., 2012, ‘ Yemen: Time running out for solution to water crisis’, Retrieved 13 August 2012.
Kirby, A., 2007, ‘Yemen’s Khat habit soaks up water’, BBC News, 7 of April 2007.
Krista, M., 2010, ‘ What if Yemen is the first Country to Run Out of Water’, Time Magazine. Retrieved 17 April 2015.
Lyons, K., 2017, ‘ Yemen’s Cholera outbreak now the worst in history as millionth case looms’, The Guardian, retrieved 3 March 2018.
Middle East Eye., 2015, ‘Houthi militia installs ‘presidential council’ to run Yemen’, Retrieved 6 Feb 2015.
Oakford, S., 2015, ‘ Battered By Civil War and Historic Cyclones, Yemen Now Faces Swarms of Locusts’, Vice News, Retrieved 12 Dec 2015.
Simeon, K., 2015, ‘ UN and Gulf back Yemeni president Hadi amid fears of civil war’, Financial Times, Retrived 22 March 2015.

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Oinsa Fundo Petrolifero Sustenta Orsamento Jeral Estado Wainhira Minarai Maran?

10/23/2018

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Oinsa Fundo Petrolifero Sustenta Orsamento Jeral Estado
Wainhira Minarai Maran?
Autor: Tomas Freitas

Introdusaun
Nasaun barak iha mundo esforsu hakore - an husi dependensia ba seitor petroleu tanba la sustentavel, rezerva menus no folin la estavel mak sai hanesan sasukat. Iha fulan Junho 2014 folin minarai atinzi $115 kada bidon, no iha Febreiru 2016 tun ba $35 kada barril, (Rogoff, 2016). Haktuir relatoriu husi World Economic Forum hateten katak razaun ba folin minarai tun la’os deit tanba nasaun OPEC sira hamenus sira nian produsaun (Supply Failure) hanesan akontese iha tinan 1985-1986. Petroleu nian folin tun mos la’os deit tanba krizi ekonomiku hanesan akontese iha tinan 2008-2009 ne’ebe kunyesidu ho (Demand Failure), maibe iha relatoriu ne deskreve folin tun tanba buat rua ne hotu, liu liu relasiona ho nasaun China nian kresimentu ekonomia, ne’ebe afeita makás husi sasan folin tun (Sharps drops in commodity price). Deklarasaun ne hato’o husi Profesor Dr. Kenneth Rogoff husi Universidade Harvard, (Rogoff, 2016).

Iha artiklu ne, sei la deskuti kona ba tanba sa mina nian folin tun, autor sei tenta haré Timor-Leste nian dependensia ba industria extraktivu, no analiza oinsa Fundo Petrolifero bele sustenta Orsamento Jeral do Estado.

Iha paper ne autor koko analiza data balun relasiona ho industria extraktivu husi Tasi Timor, liu-liu produsaun mai husi rezevoar sira hanesan Elang Kakatua ho Kakatua Norte (EKKN), Bayu Undan no KITAN. Analiza ne atu loke fila fali ho klean data official mak publika husi Autoridade Nasional do Petroleum e Minerais (ANPM), no data balun publika iha dokumentu Orsamentu Jeral do Estado. Resultadu investigasaun ne detekta bainhira los mak produsaun husi Kampo Bayu Undan sei maran, tanba sekuandu Timor-Leste la halo ona produsaun, entaun sei afekta kalae ba iha kalkulasaun Rendimentu Estimativu Sustentavel (RSE), signifika mos futuru nasaun Timor-Leste atu sai oinsa los.

Photo credit to Roberth Garvey

Produsaun Minarai
Iha tabela kraik, autor konsege kompila hamutuk evidensia mak mai husi relatoriu annual Timor Sea Designate Authority (TSDA), relatoriu annual Autoridade Nasional do Petroleum e Minerais (ANPM) no mos informasaun balun preve iha dokumentu livro do Orsamentu Jeral do Estado. Mai haré didiak informasaun hirak ne.

Fontes: Annual Report TSDA, Annual report ANPM, Livros Orsamento Geral do Estado.

Koluna dahuluk husi tabela iha leten representa informasaun kona ba produsaun mina-matak husi posu Bayu Undan, koluna tuir deskreve dadus kona ba produsaun gas mai husi Bayu Undan, koluna seluk eskrita informasaun balun mesmo la kumpletu kona ba produsaun mina-matak husi KITAN, iha koluna nia sorin seluk iha informasaun oituan kona ba produsaun gas husi KITAN. Alende informasaun kona ba likuido ho gas husi rezevoar rua Bayu Undan ho KITAN, iha mos koluna seluk fo sai numero total produsaun minarai kompostu husi Elang Kakatua ho Kakatua Norte (EKKN) + Bayu Undan + KITAN, data produsaun hirak ne fo sai desde tinan 2004 ate 2017. Iha tabela mos hatudu kona ba folin presu minarai kada barril ne’ebe mina-matak nian folin adere ba. Informasaun husi koluna ikus liu ilustra rendimentu receitas husi aktividades petrolifero, kompostu husi mina ho gas nian folin no mos taxa hirak mak kolekta husi aktividades refere.

Relatoriu annual Authoridade Nasional do Petroleo e Minerais (ANPM) 2017, esklarese produsaun mina matak (liquidos) kada loron husi Kampo Bayu Undan. Bazeia ba publikasaun website ANPM (2017) nian liu husi (Lafaek, Field Production Data), total produsaun mina husi Bayu Undan iha tinan 2017 hamutuk barril Miliaun 41,417,962.91 sekuandu ita kompara ho total produsaun iha tinan 2016, ne’ebe produs barril miliaun 48,868,023.30 numeros mak diferensia provolta barril miliaun 7,397,060.39 ho liafuan seluk ita bele hateten produsaun iha tinan 2017 tun liu 15% kompara ho produsaun 2016 nian, (ANPM, 2017). Wainhira halo analiza produsaun kada loron husi tinan 2004 – 2017, data publika katak produsaun kada loron menus husi tinan ba tinan. Data produsaun kada loron iha tinan 2004 komesa ho kuantidade 115.000 barril maibe wainhira kontinua halo produsaun lor-loron durante tinan sanulu resin hat nian laran agora menus liu 25.000 barril, (ANPM, 2017,25). Iha faktus mos hatudu wainhira rezerva likuidos tun dadaun produsaun kada loron mos resulta diferensia bot, ijemplo iha tinan 2016 diferensia 15.3% kompara ho tinan 2015 nian, nune mos produsaun iha tinan 2017 menus 20.6% kompara ho tinan 2016 nian.

Iha parte seluk tabela iha leten mos performa produsaun gas kada loron husi kampo Bayu Undan ne’ebe hatudu data diferente oituan ho produsaun minarai nian. Hahu’u husi tinan 2008 produsaun gas kada loron kuaze estabil durante dekada ida nian laran, data iha leten deskreve iha tinan 2008 produsaun gas kada loron atinzi 500 Milion Meter Square Cubic Feet (Mmscf), (ANPM, 2008, 20), numero produsaun ne konsege hakmatek durante tinan tolu nian laran, depois iha tinan 2011 numero konsege sae ba 550 ate 588 Mmscf iha tinan 2015, (ANPM, 2011, 26 & 2015, 22) hafoin tun fali ba 510 Mmscf iha tinan 2017, (ANPM, 2017, 25).

Alende produsaun husi Posu Bayu Undan, Timor-Leste mos iha posu seluk hanesan KITAN. Mina-matan refere komesa ninian produsaun mina matak ba dahuluk iha loron 11 de Outubro 2011 no produsaun aktividades ne taka iha loron 15 Dezembro 2015, (ANPM, 2015). Rezevoar KITAN hapara sira nian aktividade produsaun tanba likuido menus liu, data iha tabela hateten produsaun minarai ikus liu husi KITAN kada loron provolta deit 5000 – 6000 barril, (ANPM, 2016, 24). Mesmo durasaun tempo ba produsaun ladun naruk maibe rezevoar refere konsege hatama osan milioens ba konta (Account) Fundo Petrolifero.

Informasaun iha tabela leten mos ilustra total produsaun kada tinan nian, kompostu husi Elang Kakatua ho Kakatua Norte (EKKN), aumenta tan Bayu Undan ho KITAN. Numerous rezerva indika momos kuantidade produsaun hahu’u husi tinan 2004 produs ona likuidos provolta barril miliaun rua nulu resin ate miliaun nen nulu resin, total kuantidade produsaun kontribui husi EKKN ho Bayu Undan iha tinan 2004 – 2007. Hafoin EKKN la halo tan ninian produsaun iha tinan 2007, Bayu Undan mesak halo produsaun konsege supa sai mina matak ho kuantidade barril miliaun nen nulu resin tolu ate miliaun hitu nulu resin hat iha tinan 2008-2010. Iha 2011 rezevoar KITAN mos hahu’u halo produsaun no entre posu rua konsege produs hamutuk mina-matak bidon miliaun nen nulu resin walu iha tinan 2011, no bidon miliaun lima nulu resin rua liu iha tinan 2015 molok KITAN hakotu ninian destinu. Agora dadaun uniku rezevoar halo produsaun mak Bayu Undan ne’ebe iha tinan 2016 produs ona mina-matak bidon miliaun hat nulu resin walu, no produs mina-matak bidon miliaun hat nulu resin ida iha tinan 2017, (ANPM, 2017).

Koluna ikus iha tabela leten hato’o total receitas petroleum ne’ebe kompostu husi faan minarai nian folin no taxa ne’ebe kolekta husi aktividades petroliferos. Informasaun deskreve iha koluna esklarese receitas aumenta wainhira kuantidade produsaun aumenta barak no presu mundial mos ninian folin aumenta as. Observasaun ba data mak publika iha livros Orsamento Jeral do Estado durante tinan tolu nian laran wainhira produsaun sei barak no mina nian folin kada bidon faan ho folin $88 iha tinan 2011 (Ministerio das Financas, 2012, 29), faan ho presu $91 iha tinan 2012 (Ministerio das Financas, 2013, 61), no $86.6 iha tinan 2013, (Ministerio das Financas, 2014, 42). Durante period tinan tolu receitas husi Tasi Timor konsege hatama osan biliaun sia resin ba konta Fundo Petrolifero. Maibe agora Receitas total husi Tasi Timor tun barak tanba kuantidade rezerva menus, informasaun husi tinan 2016 nian deklara osan tama miliaun $223.9 (Ministerio das Financas, 2018, 52). Numero refere tun kuaze 77.1% kompara ho receitas tinan 2015 mak hamutuk miliaun 978.9 razaun fundamentu husi receitas tun tanba mina folin tun iha merkadu global no mina bidon ida faan deit ho folin $42.7, (Ministerio das Financas, 2017, 52).

Informasaun iha tabela leten hatudu provas katak aktividades produsaun husi Bayu Undan sei para iha loron ida, ijemplo ne hatudu ona husi EKKN no mos KITAN. Mina-matan KITAN hapara sira nian produsaun wainhira sira produs deit bidon rihun lima (5000) kada loron, (ANPM, 2016, 24). Tanba Kompania operador hatene ona kustu ba halo produsaun bot liu fali kompara ho lukru mak sira hetan husi faan mina refere. Molok halo prediksaun bainhira mak Bayu Undan atu hapara ninian produsaun tuir mai bele analiza didiak grafiku balun mak iha kraik ne’ebe publika husi Autoridade Nasional Petroleum e Minerais nian relatoriu annual iha tinan 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017.

Grafik Produsaun Mina no Gas iha Rezevoar Bayu Undan husi Janeiru-Dezembru 2014

Fontes Imajen husi Relatoriu Annual ANPM 2014, pajina 21

Iha grafiku leten ilustra produsaun mina matak mak produs typu tolu husi likuidos ne rasik, typu tolu mak inklui; Propane ho linha kor café, Buthane ho linha kor azul, no Condensate ho kor matak, typu tolu ne tau hamutuk mak hanaran total likuido iha linha kor metan. Total likuido mak produs iha fulan Janeiro 2014 provolta bidon rihun lima nulu (50,000) kada loron, no iha fulan dezembro 2014 tun ba bidon rihun hat nulu (40,000) kada loron. Informasaun iha grafiku komfirmadu ho informasaun mak publika iha tabela iha leten, ne’ebe deskreve produsaun kada loron iha tinan 2014 provolta (average) rihun hat nulu, virgula atus hitu resin (40,700), (ANPM, 2014, 21).

Grafik Produsaun Mina ho Gas Kampo Bayu Undan husi Janeiru – Dezembru 2015

Fontes imajen husi Relatoriu Annual APNM 2015, Pajina 22

Bazia ba grafiku iha leten, linha kor azul performa total produsaun likuido iha loron ida nian ba fulan janeiro 2015 hamutuk bidon rihun hat nulu (40,000) no iha fulan dezembru produsaun provolta bidon rihun tolu nulu (30,000). Data hirak ne mos hanesan ho Informasaun mak iha tabela leten ne’ebe indika produsaun kada loron durante tinan 2015 nian provolta bidon rihun tolu nulu resin hitu virgule atus walu (37,800), (ANPM, 2015, 22).

Grafik Produsaun Mina ho Gas Posu Bayu Undan husi Janeiru – Dezembru 2017

Fontes Imajen husi relatoriu annual ANPM 2017, pajina 29.

Autor la konsege hetan grafiku tinan 2016 nian tanba iha ANPM nian relatoriu annual 2016 nafatin publika grafiku mak hanesan ba tinan 2015 nian.

Grafiku iha leten hakerek produsaun kada loron husi kampo Bayu Undan nian komesa husi Janeiru ate Dezembro 2017. Iha linha kor Azul aponta produsaun nian kuantidade tun husi rihun tolu nulu (30,000) ba to’o iha rihun rua nulu (20,000). Justifikasaun iha tabela leten hatudu katak minarai Bayu Undan kada loron iha tinan 2017 halo produsaun provolta rihun rua nulu resin lima virgula atus hat resin hat nulu (25,440), (ANPM, 2017, 25).

Wainhira analiza grafiku tolu iha leten klaru iha indikasaun produsaun likuidos kada loron nian iha tinan-tinan tun kuaze rihun sanulu resin (10,000). Referensia mak deskreve tiha ona fo prediksaun iha tinan 2018 produsaun kada loron sei tun husi rihun rua nulu (20,000) ba rihun sanulu (10,000), no iha tinan 2019 produsaun sei kontinua tun husi rihun sanulu (10,000) ba Zero produsaun, entaun bele dehan katak entre fulan Junho to Julho Bayu Undan sei atinzi produsaun 5,000 barril kada loron, ne signifika Bayu Undan nian destinu mos to’o ona. Tanba KITAN nian destinu mos hakotu ho produsaun entre 5,000 – 6,000 barril kada loron. Numeros iha tabela leten hatudu wainhira KITAN komesa ninian produsaun iha tinan 2011, mina-matan refere hahu’u ho kuantidade produsaun kada loron rihun hat nulu resin (40,030) no remata iha tinan 2015, KITAN nian durasaun tinan lima deit wainhira kuantidade produsaun hahu’u ho rihun hat nulu (40,030) kada loron, (ANPM, 2011, 33). Iha parte hanesan Bayu Undan mos atinzi sira nian produsaun kada loron rihun hat nulu, resin atus hitu (40,700) iha tinan 2014 (ANPM, 2014, 21), signifika mos iha tinan lima nian laran (2019) aktividades produsaun iha area refere tama ona ba faze desmantelementu.

Transferensia Fundo Petrolifero

Sekuandu produsaun husi Bayu Undan hotu ona, saida mak akontese transferensia Fundo Petrolifero? Bazeia ba Lei Fundo Petrolifero nian iha artigu numero 8 kona ba Transferensia ne’ebe hakerek hanesan tuir mai;

Artigu 8
Rekerementu ba Tranferensia
Laiha transferensia ida mak bele halo husi Fundo Petrolifero iha tinan fiscal nian laran, wainhira Governu seidauk hato’o ba Parlemento Nasional relatorio hirak mak hanesan;

(a)   Espesifiku kona ba Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo ba tinan fiscal ne’ebe transfere ne atu halo;

(b)   Espesifiku kona ba Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo husi tinan fiscal ne’ebe liu ba; no

(c)    Sertifikadu husi Auditor Independente kona ba Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo ne’ebe refere ba paragraph (a) ho (b) mak iha leten.

Fontes: Lei Fundo Petrolifero No 9/2005, Pajina 5.

Artigu 8 klaramente hakerek uniku transferensia husi Fundo Petrolifero ba Orsamento Jeral do estado mak liu husi kalkulasaun Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo (RSE), hanesan deskreve iha paragraf a), b), ho c) mak temi tiha ona. Tuir mai akompaña hamutuk oinsa halo kalkulasaun ba RSE, haktuir peritu husi Fundo Monetario Internasional, Alistar Watson ne’ebe hato’o apresentasaun ba grupo Sociadade Civil Timor-Leste nian iha tinan 2010.

Fontes Lao Hamutuk website, (Watson, 2010).

Tabela iha leten hato’o ijemplo iha tinan sanulu nian laran, sekuandu receitas husi Tasi Timor hatama deit miliaun atus lima (500) entaun tinan-tinan receitas so fornese deit atus ida (100) durante tinan lima dahuluk. Tabela iha leten hato’o ijemplo retornu investementu aumenta 3% tinan-tinan, no numerous iha tabele leten mos halo kalkulasaun bazeia ba 3% Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo. Financial Assets signifika total investementu mak iha Fundo Petrolifero (FP), iha tabela ne ilustra katak iha tinan primeiro; assets iha FP seidauk iha (0), receitas husi Tasi laran hetan deit miliaun $100, no transferensia ba OJE miliaun $14, entaun balansu iha konta Fundo Petrolifero hela deit miliaun $86. Retornu investimentu 3% iha tinan primeiro husi miliaun $100 nian mak miliaun $3. Iha tinan segundu; receitas tama mak; (100 + 100 - 14 = 186 x 3% = 5), iha tabela mos fosai wainhira receitas latama tanba produsaun la lao ona, ho retornu investementu 3%, no sekarik Parlamentu Nasional disiplina aprova Fundo Petrolifero bazeia ba 3 % RSE nian, e halo transferensia ba OJE laliu miliaun $14 tinan-tinan, entaun analiza husi Alistair Watson nian sei la falha, signifika minarai maran mos Fundo Petrolifero Sei bele kontinua sustenta Orsamento Jeral do Estado iha futuru.

Iha realidade estadu Timor-Leste dala barak kontinua halo transferensia Fundo Petrolifero liu tiha kalkulasaun 3 % husi Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo. Tuir mai tabela kraik sei hatudu durante ne osan hira ona mak estadu foti husi Fundo Petrolifero.

Fontes; Livros do Orsamento Jeral do Estado & Relatorios Annual Fundo Petrolifero

Tabela iha leten, deskreve informasaun detailho komesa husi tinan 2005 – 2018 , informasaun hirak ne mak inklui numero total Fundo Petrolifero nian, Gastu ba Orsamento Jeral do Estado, no receitas husi Fundo Petrolifero ba Orsamento Jeral do Estado, inklui mos informasaun sobre receitas domestica. Iha koluna dahuluk ilustra balansu total husi Fundo Petrolifero iha tinan 2005 wainhira halo investementu ba dahuluk komesa ho osan miliaun $204.6, (Ministerio das Financas, 2007, 4), no balansu ikus iha tinan 2018 nian mak Biliaun $16.927,3 (Ministerio das Financas, 2018, 52).

Iha koluna segundu apresenta kona ba retornu investementu husi Fundo Petrolifero, no kuaze tinan tinan sempre iha retornu positivo maibe mos iha tinan balun indika retornu negative ijemplo mak iha tinan fiscal 2005-06 retornu investementu lakon osan miliaun lima virgula atus walu tolu nulu resin ida ($5,831) (Ministerio das Financas, 2007, 5) no iha tinan 2015 lakon osan miliaun rua nulu resin ida virgule zero nen nulu ($21,060), (Ministerio das Financas, 2015, 25) .

Bazeia ba Lei Fundo Petrolifero No 12/2012, artigu 15 kona ba Regras de Investementu, paragraph 1) deside Fundo Petrolifero halo investementu konservativu la menus liu 50 % iha US Treasury Bonds. Iha parte seluk, paragraph 2) hateten bele halo investementu la liu 50% iha Dezenvolvementu Merkadu Financeiru (Equities), (Ministerio das Financas, 2011). Banco Central Timor-Leste responsabliza ba 41% husi investementu total husi fundu, no 59% husi Fundo jere husi jestor privado sira seluk hanesan; Bank for International Settlements (10%), Alliance Bernstein (5%), Wellinton (5%), State Street Global Advisors (17), Black Rock (17%), no Schroders (5%), (Ministerio das Financas, 2017,2).

Koluna tuir fali relata informasaun detalho kona ba total transfarensia tinan-tinan husi Fundo Petrolifero ba Orsamento Jeral do Estado. Alende koluna seluk hakerek informasaun kona ba numeros osan mak transfere bazeia ba 3% Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimativo. Iha koluna seluk fali fosai numeros osan mak foti liu husi platform 3% RSE nian, iha koluna ne mos, iha tinan balun transferensia husi Fundo Petrolifero la liu RSE, ijemplo mak iha tinan fiscal 2006-07, 2007, 2013, ho razaun tanba kalkulasaun RSE bot liu fali transferensia ne’ebe persija.

Informasaun balun iha tabela leten hakerek kona ba total gastus Orsamentu Jeral do Estadu kada tinan hahu’u husi tinan fiscal 2005-06 ate 2018, informasaun seluk iha koluna tuir fali kona ba prosentazem husi alokasaun Fundo Petrolifero ba iha OJE provolta entre 80 -90%. Koluna ikus husi tabela iha leten mos indika receitas domestica seidauk bele atinzi 20% husi total Orsamento Jeral do Estado. Mesmo Iha VI governu konstitusional kria tiha ona ekipa ida ho naran Komisaun Reforma Fiskal, maibe implementasaun husi politika ne foin mak implementa, ninian ijemplo mak hanesan sistema pagamentu elektronika TPA/POS (Point of Sale Terminal) ne’ebe implementa tiha ona iha Alfandega iha loron 30 de Julho 2018, (Ministerio das Financas, 2018).

Konkluzaun

Data ho informasaun sira mak hato’o tiha ona iha artiklu ne fo hanoin ba ita Produsaun husi Kampo Bayu Undan iha posibilidade bot atu maran iha tinan 2019. Sekuandu laiha tan ona receitas husi industria extraktivu, Fundo Petrolifero sei depende deit ba iha retornu investementu fundo ne rasik. Wainhira Estadu Timor-Leste kontinua foti osan husi Fundo ne liu 3% RSE nian ho montante Biliaun 1.5 entaun signifika ezistensia Fundo nian sei la to’o 2028. Maibe sekuandu Orsamentu Jeral do Estadu sei atu gasta provolta biliaun 1.2 entaun fundo refere sei bele auguenta to’o tinan 2032. Mas kuandu governu atu foti biliaun 5-6 tan para halo investementu seluk, entaun durasaun husi fundo sei menus liu tan husi tinan sanulu nian laran. Evidensia mak iha artiklu hatudu numeros receitas domestica seidauk aumenta maksimal, espera katak ho mekanismo foun kona ba pagamentu elektroniku bele hasae rendimentu receitas domestica ba iha kofre do estado.

Referensia

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Can a Minskyian Perspective explain the Financial Crisis 2008?

10/16/2018

1 Comment

Can a Minskyian Perspective explain the Financial Crisis 2008?
Author Tomas Freitas

Introduction
Since 1957, Minsky has argued that a high capitalist economy with developed financial institutions is basically unbalanced, and will plunge into a depression as a consequence of a period of debt-financed “euphoria”. Minsky’s strictures were abandoned throughout the long boom of the 1960s, and even during the oil and Third World debt shocks of the 1970s (Keen, 1995). However, his theories cannot be disregarded after a long period of economic instability which began with the collapse of securitization of home mortgages in 1987 (Minsky, 2008). The collapse of the sub-prime market in August 2008 has been widely tagged a “Minsky moment,” (Palley, 2009). This current crisis has invited many economists to interpret what is really going on and why these kinds of crisis are repeated. Apart from Marxist theories of economic crisis, there are a number of political economists attempting to follow and draw a picture of the roots of the crisis - one of them is Hyman Minsky.

This essay will attempt to explain how the current financial crisis relates to a traditional Minsky hypothesis. Minsky’s theory of financial instability hypothesis comes from John Maynard Keynes general theory (2008), which is argued by Adam Smith in his views of market processes in his book “An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of The Wealth of Nations: Book IV, Chapter 2,” (1776).
These contradictory arguments have inspired Minsky to elaborate his financial instability hypothesis. To generate his hypothesis, Minsky uses several approaches including debt deflation by Irving Fisher, the credit view of money by Joseph Schumpeter which is in favour of Institutional Structural, Minsky’s own Cushions of Safety which were reviewed by Jan Kregel, as well as Minsky’s non-financial firms such as hedge fund, speculative and ponzi units. The financial instability hypothesis also is incorporated with the view of profits, which is developed by Kalecki (1991) and Levy (1983).

However, this essay will be limited to discussing two different views of Keynes and Smith which are fundamental to Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis and which have re-generated into two basics theories of “debt-deflations” and “cushions of safety” with the help of two importance variables including “Ponzi Pyramids” and “Institutional Structures”. Before moving into those discussions, the essay will provide a short biography of Minsky.

A biography of Minsky
Hyman Philip Minsky was born on 23 September 1919, completed his bachelor degree in Mathematics at Chicago University in 1941, and achieved his MPA in 1947 and PhD in 1954 at Harvard University. Two Chicago professors were the most significant early influences on his thought (Minsky, 1985). The inspiration to study economics came from Oskar Lange, who was at that time working out a synthesis of Marx and neoclassical economics that he called market socialism (Lange, 1938). Henry Simons was the source of Minsky’s lifelong interest in finance, as well as the idea that the fundamental flaw of modern capitalism came from its banking and financial structure (Simons, 1948). Taken together, Lange’s model of a possible socialism and Simons model of the ‘good financial society,’ represented the central features of Minsky’s ideal economic system,’ from which he would later analyse and criticise existing economic structures (Mehrling, 1999). After a sabbatical in 1969-70, Minsky seemed to view himself as Keynesian, seen through his assessment of certain fundamental institutional issues. Afterwards he became opposed to not only to monetarism but also to mainstream Keynesianism (Minsky, 1972).

Financial Instability Hypothesis
Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis mainly draws from Keynesian ‘General Theory’, which has identified “the capital development of the economy” as an economic problem rather than, “the allocation of giving resources among alternative employments”. As a detailed illustration, Minsky emphasises that the exchange of present money for future money is representative of the capital development of capitalist economy in the present day (Minsky, 1992).

Minsky has identified that the capital development of a capitalist economy provides a range of possibilities to build up financial fragility, which is why, in Minsky’s opinion, it is necessary to provide regulations and interventions. This notion is a synthesis of two fundamental arguments by Adam Smith and John Keynes about the result of market processes. We can see these two fundamental views about the outcome of a market economy have been achieved. One of them, as stated by Adam Smith, is as follows:

“As every individual, therefore, endeavours as much as he can both to employ his capital in the support of domestic industry, and so to direct that industry that its produce may be of the greatest value; every individual necessarily labours to render the annual revenue of the society as great as he can. He generally, indeed, neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it. By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention” (Smith, 1776, IV, Ch 2).

Keynes has interpreted Smith’s legacy of invisible hands in these days as speculatory behaviour, which is practically implemented by debtors and lenders in guarantee loans. In opposition to Smithian speculation, Keynes states his legacy of the alternative to the invisible hand – comparative static approach to economics. Keynes wrote:
“If I may be allowed to appropriate the term speculation for the activity of forecasting the psychology of the market, and the terms of enterprises for assets over their whole life, it is by no means always the case that speculation predominates over enterprise. As the organization of investment markets improves, the risk of the predominance of speculation does however, increase. Speculators do no harm as bubbles on a sea of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes the by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill done” (Keynes, 2008, 142).

According to Minsky, in designing and advocating policies and practices, economists are likely to have to choose between Smithian and Keynesian theories, Smithian theory being that the market “always” leads to the promotion of the public welfare, and the Keynesian theory that market processes “may” lead to poor capital development of the economy (Minsky, 1991). The only answer to the “invisible hand” conjecture is to apply appropriate regulations and interventions, if the results of poor capital development are serious (1992b). The financial instability hypothesis was used to explain the great financial construction of the United States in the 1932-1933, where the United States faced a crisis in the savings and loans of the banking system (Minsky, 1992b). According to Minsky, the phenomena of changes in the institutions combined with the ordinary approach and bad performances of private and public decision makers has become vital to weaknesses, which often suggests promises of an overall theoretical perspective to current troubles always leading up to these problems (Minsky, 1977, 140).

The system of capitalist economy evolved in the mid 1960s; this was a period of financial innovation, well known as the era of financial markets. The first serious test of financial innovation came in 1966 in the municipal bond market and the second in 1970 with a run of commercial paper – but each of these was determined through prompt central bank action (Minsky, 2008). Financial innovations are related to what has come to be known as Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis, which has allowed an existing quantity of high-powered money to support greater expenditure. Innovations allow “a pyramiding of liquid assets” to replace cash, government bonds, or short term bank debt in portfolios. This increases the instability of the system since failure by only a few large firms (financial or non-financial) to meet debt commitments can lead to an increase in failures as assets are written-down (Fazzari & Papadimitriou, 1992). According to Thomas Palley (2009), Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis supports the reasoning that capital financial systems have an inherent proclivity to financial fragility, and that this proclivity can be summarised in the maxim “Success breeds success breeds failure” or “Success breeds excess breeds’ failure”.

Minsky’s framework is one of evolutionary instability and it can be thought of as resting on two different cyclical processes. The first cycle can be labelled the “basic Minsky cycle” while the second can be labelled the “super-Minsky cycle.”
The basic Minsky cycle concerns the evolution of patterns of financing arrangements, and it captures the phenomenon of emerging financial fragility in business and household balance sheets. The cycle begins with “hedge finance” when borrowers’ expected revenues are sufficient to repay interest and the loan principal. It then passes on to “speculative finance” when revenues only cover interest. Finally, the cycle ends with “ponzi finance” when revenues are insufficient to cover interest payments and borrowers are relying on capital gains to meet their obligations.

The basic Minsky cycle offers a psychologically-based theory of the business cycle. Agents become progressively more optimistic, which manifests in increasingly optimistic valuations of assets and associated revenue streams and willingness to take on increasing risk in belief that the good times are here forever. This optimistic psychology afflicts both borrowers and lenders and not just one side of the market. That is critical because it means market discipline is progressively removed.

This process of rising optimism is evident in the way business cycle expansions tend to generate talk about the “death of the business cycle.” In the 1990s there was talk of the “new economy” that was supposed to have killed the business cycle by inaugurating a period of permanently accelerated productivity growth. In the 2000’s there was talk of the “Great Moderation” that claimed central banks had tamed the business cycle through improved monetary policy based on improved theoretical understanding of the economy. This talk is not incidental but instead constitutes evidence of the basic Minsky cycle at work. Moreover, it afflicts all, including regulators and policymakers. For instance, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke himself indicated in 2004 that he was a believer in the Great Moderation hypothesis.

Debt Deflation or Over-Indebtedness
In the Keynesian view, over-protection during good times can be a result of crisis in the savings and loans and the banking system, a consequence of sectoral indebtedness by running out of the ability of sectoral cash flows to validate the contracts (Minsky, 1991).
Keynes ‘general theory’ also contained some elements of the financial instability hypothesis, provided by political economists such as Irving Fisher with his classical description of debt deflation. In Fisher’s argument, over-indebtedness is the only factor that disturbs general economic equilibrium. He also assumed that at some point in time a state of over-indebtedness will exist, which will tend to lead to liquidation, through the alarm either of debtors or creditors or both (Fisher, 1933).

Minsky’s analyses on Fisher debt-deflation has several emphasis, one being that debt-deflation occurs only while investment and capital assets are financed as economies have the benefit of an extended period of good times. Minsky also identified improvements in the market; like alterations in institutions, which is compatible with new instruments such as communicating and computing, is one aspect of the way financing changes over extended periods of good times. However, in Fisher’s theory of debt-deflation, he did not explain how over-indebtedness developed (Minsky, 1994).

Minsky also states that finance allows for a much faster growth of income and capital accumulation but, at the same time, increases the stock of debt, and the associated financial commitments affects the level of expected cash flows (Gatti & Gallegati, 1990). Over-indebtedness also tends to constrain investment by business and debt-financed consumption households. The United States economy was at that time burdened by a deadweight government debt accumulated as a result of the dreadful abuse of the government budget during the 1980’s, an abuse which is continuing today. These conditions mean that a recovery from the current recession will not be accompanied by buoyant private demand (Minsky, 1992b).

Hedge, Speculative and Ponzi Finance
Which factors determine the importance of borrowers and lenders risk in establishing the level of investment? To address that question, Minsky distinguishes non-financial firms according to whether they are what he terms hedge, speculative, or ponzi units (Pollin, 1997).

As mentioned above, hedge financing has a normal cash flow large enough to meet both principle and interest that is due on debts. Speculative financing has the income of the debtor large enough to meet the interest but not principle payments and Ponzi financing takes place when not enough is earned to meet even the interest due on debts. Speculative finance involves rolling over debts and Ponzi finance involves the capitalisation of interest (Minsky, 1991).

Essentially, a Ponzi collapse is a debt crisis: when there is too much debt accumulated by an economic agent, and there is no way to either get the resources to pay the debt including interest, postpone the payments, or shift the debt on to someone else, economic agents such as debtors and lenders will face bankruptcy (Nesvetailova, 2008). According to Jan Kregel of the Levy Institute, the types of debt are critically related to the way risk has been valued, assessed, and modelled by banks and financial institutions since the liberalisation reforms were introduced in the 1980s (Kregel, 2008).

So, now comes the question, can debt-deflation theory with the help of Ponzi pyramids units explain the recent financial crisis? Yes, indeed, because oversupply of housing was exacerbated when interest rates were increased and hundreds of thousands of lower middle income borrowers in the United States could no longer afford their mortgage payments, (Gupta, 2008). Moreover, the diversification of collateral debt obligations into rating CCC which targeted the sub-prime level market meant that mortgages could not be re-sold because prices had dropped (Jarvis, 2009).

Cushions of Safety
Numerous analysts have distinguished the relevance of Hyman Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis to understanding the current crisis in the financial systems of developed countries. Central to Minsky’s analysis of financial fragility was the concept of a cushion of safety, an initiative related to the prominent security analyst and hedge fund investor Benjamin Graham cited in (Calandro, 2009).
The “cushion” covers the margin of error in anticipated returns from an investment project. Minsky analysed the investment decision from the point of view of the difference between prospective cash receipts and cash commitments that represent the margin of safety. For instance, the margin of safety for a banker lending to a businessman for a particular project would be determined by the difference between the amount loaned and the amount required to finance the project. The margin could also be determined by realisation of the value of the collateral required of the borrower, the amount of compensating deposits, or any other factor that the banker believed would allow him to recover his loan if future income from the project disappointed expectations (Kregel, 2008).
According to Jan Kregel (2008), financial fragility increased by a deliberate and unnoticeable erosion of margins of safety in the relative normal circumstances. He states that this situation can be drawn to holding-up payments, suffering borrowing, or even distress transactions of inventory and productive assets. In these activities sometimes, the banker may propose re-possession of the collateral behind the loan.

The result is a debt deflation process in which “position has to be sold to make position” and the downward pressure on prices raises real debt burdens. Lower prices increase the necessity to sell and reinforce the excess supply, making it even more difficult for the investor to fully repay his/her loan from asset sales (Kregel, 2008).

Minsky describe the weaknesses of banking institutions, which are usually better informed about the overall market environment and potential competitors, and are inherently sceptical of the borrower’s estimate of future cash flows and thus insist on margins of safety. The problem of declining margins of safety is because in the earlier 1980s there was an introduction of neoliberal concepts, well known as the “Washington consensus”. This original concept was written by Friedman and Hayek (Legge, 2009), and promoted by the Reagan and Thatcher governments. One of the central ideas is financial deregulation. Before the arrival of the neoliberal approach to economic thinking and policy, very strict regulations were applied by Section 20 of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 (Rosenblum, 2003). This regulation was to restrict the commercial banks from affiliating with firms “engaged principally” in potential profitability activities, such as underwriting and dealing in securities. Since the Washington consensus, the commercial banks have urged relaxation of these and other constraints on their ability to enter new markets and new lines of business (Tarullo, 2008). As a result, for the first time in 1987 the Federal Reserve authorised an exemption on such a subsidiary and the first securitised investment vehicle was created the following year. Financial deregulation and liberalisation, so highly praised a decade ago, turned out to be a dangerous beast, and has gotten out of hand of the public authorities. According to the data from the Deutsche Borse Group, the current Over the Counter (OTC), about 84% of all trade in financial derivatives take place in the markets, not in regulated exchanges (Tarullo, 2008, 6).

Recent Financial Crisis
Let’s see if Minsky can explain the recent crisis which happened in the sub-prime mortgage market in the United States. Subprime mortgages represented an average of 8 percent of all loans in the 2001-2003 period, rising to an average of 20 percent in the 2005-2006 period, when over 80 percent of such mortgages were securitised with an average value of approximately $450 billion per annum (Randdal, 2007). This increase supports one of Minsky’s argument which is that “finance allows for a much faster growth of income and capital accumulation but, at the same time, increases the stock of debt” (Gatti & Gallegati, 1990).

According to the Congressional Budget Office of the United States, sub-prime mortgages account for more than half of expected credit losses and are now forecast in the range of $300 billion to $400 billion. However, since 2005 after rates have been counted for two years, this amount rose to roughly $1.5 trillion (2008, 23). If house prices fell by 30 percent, these figures would double, but not including additional defaults. In addition, there has been an unexpected increase in prime mortgage defaults that could bring the total credit losses to nearly $900 billion as a high estimate (Kregel, 2008). These dynamic figures have shown that the losses would be distributed among borrowers, creditors and banks. This phenomena is reflected in the theory of debt-deflation or over-indebtedness in which “the rise of debt-deflation can only happen while investment and capital assets are financed as economies have the benefits of an extended period of good times” (Minsky, 1994).

Institutional Structure
The financial instability hypothesis also supports the credit view of money and finance by Joseph Schumpeter (1934). In 1911 Schumpeter argued that the services provided by financial intermediaries , which are mobilising savings, evaluating projects, managing risk, monitoring managers, and facilitating transactions, are essential for technological innovation and economic development (King & Levine, 1993).

Schumpeter characterised the banker as the ephor of developing capitalist economies. At an earlier meeting of the Schumpeter Society, Minsky characterised central bankers as the “ephor of the ephors” of capitalism (Minsky, 1994). In 1797 – 1800, the Bank of England was suspended because of the war of inflation in which the Bank of England had obligations to cash notes in gold, which resulted in a great impact on prices and foreign exchange rates (Schumpeter, 1939).

According to Schumpeter, Keynes, in order to overcome the malfunctions of capitalism, broke down the conventional belief that saving, as a part of the bourgeois scheme of life, and unequal distribution of income and wealth, as a necessary evil for progress, were social virtues. This was, Schumpeter declared, the essence of the Keynesian Revolution. However, this renouncement of support for these values was the most basic non-economic factor leading to the fall of capitalism (Moss & Schumpeter, 1996).

There is no doubt that Minsky took some lessons from Joseph Schumpeter’s theories on credit, money and finance, as Minsky’s basic ideas to construct institutional structures reflects legislation, administrative actions, and the evolution of institutions and traditions that represented the past behaviour of market participants. The legislation reflects the understanding of the economy as maintaining economic theory, which was a rule among policy establishment at the time the institutions were created (Minsky, 1994). Minsky also emphasised that law and policy makers needed to be aware of institutional evolution which means sometimes bankers change their monetary policy which can lead to serious disruptions in investment and profit flows (Minsky, 1991).

Conclusion
This essay has presented and discussed a number of elements of economist Minsky’s theories on capitalist economy and economic systems in general. Minsky’s basic hypothesis is that capitalist economies are fragile, unstable and unbalanced. When capitalist economy gets to a stage that it is basically financed by debt, as per his financial instability hypothesis, the risk of plunging into crisis becomes great. Capitalist economic systems increased greatly in instability and fragility since 1987 with the collapse of securitisation of the home mortgage market. Minsky’s theories are therefore intimately related to the global financial system collapse two years ago, which was a cause of over-indebtedness, particularly in the sub-prime mortgage market in the United States.

In particular this essay has discussed elements of Minsky’s “financial instability hypothesis” and how it relates to the recent financial crisis. The two main elements that have been presented are that of “debt-deflations” and “cushions of safety”, backed up by a discussion of the related elements of “Ponzi Pyramids” and “Structural Institutions”. The paper has discussed how the evolution of Minsky’s theories have been grounded in the original theories on economic systems and capitalism of John Maynard Keynes and Adam Smith, one of which was critical of and the other in favour of capitalism. Essentially, Minsky sides with Keynes in purporting that a capitalist system must be grounded by regulation and intervention, to prevent it from becoming unstable. A market which is allowed to reign free is inherently unstable, leading to crisis.

In assessing how Minsky’s theories relate to the recent global economic crisis, a discussion of the elements of hedge, speculative and ponzi finance have been used to support the theory of debt-deflation, related to his financial instability hypothesis. The conclusion here is that indebtedness, an essential element of free market capitalist economy, is intimately related to the collapse of the market in the United States in 2008. Cushions of safety, another element of Minsky’s financial instability theory, has also been shown in this paper to be related to a neoliberal economic model that warrants no regulation or interference and hence the market is free to govern as it likes, resulting in a lack of any form of security should things go wrong, as happened in the recent financial crisis. Finally, institutional structures were discussed as one aspect of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis. As a result of the above detailed analysis, it can be concluded that Minsky’s economic theory of financial instability can be related to much of what occurred in the 2008 global financial crisis, in particular the sub-prime mortgage market collapse in the United States.

References
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Calandro, J, Jr., (2009) "Lessons for strategists in Graham & Dodd's Security Analysis, 6th edition", Strategy & Leadership, Vol. 37 Issue: 2, pp.45 -49, https://doi.org/10.1108/10878570910941226

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Minsky, P. H., 1972. ‘The financial Instability Revisited: The Economics of Disaster’. Prepared for the Fundamental Reappraisal of the Discount Mechanism Appointed by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Available from: http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/historicaldocs/dismech/download/59037/fininst_minsky.pdf

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Movement against the occupation of the timor sea (MKOTT) Public Declaration about the Accusations Against "Witness K" and Bernard Collaery by the Australian Government

9/16/2018

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MOVIMENTU KONTRA OKUPASAUN TASI TIMOR
(MKOTT)
Díli, 17 September 2018

Public Declaration about the Accusations Against "Witness K" and Bernard Collaery by the Australian Government

MKOTT has organized this public declaration in relation to the accusations against Timor-Leste’s two comrades in struggle, Bernard Collaery and Witness K, who on the 12th of September attended their hearing at a court in Canberra, Australia. These two friends of ours are accused of informing the public about Australia espionage which involved installing a bugging device at the Timor-Leste Government Palace, with the purpose of listening in on strategic meetings of the Government of Timor-Leste, in relation to the Maritime Boundary negotiations in 2004.

Today we present more than 1300 signatures on this ten metre white banner, signatures which we can say represent the people of Timor-Leste’s solidarity to our comrades Bernard Collaery and Witness K. This solidarity message reminds us of the history which are forefathers have told us, about the 60 000 Timorese who died defending their fellow soldiers, Australian troops, during the Second World War from1942-1945.

In memory of those heroes who died in the Second World War;

1. MKOTT strongly condemns the accusations against comrades Bernard Collaery and Witness K. The accusations are an embarrassment to a nation that is known to promote freedom of expression and democracy. MKOTT is disappointed in its large neighbour, Australia, which continues to exploit its neighbours. MKOTT believes that the charges that have been laid are intended by the Australian government as a warning to others that may wish to expose the actions of the Australian government towards its neighbours.

2. MKOTT appeals to the Australian court to throw out the charges against comrades Bernard Collaery and his client Witness K, because the courts are supposed to safeguard witnesses and condemn behaviour such as espionage, not the opposite.

3. MKOTT fully supports the initiative of Andrew Wilkie MP, Senator Nick McKim, Senator Rex Patrick no Senator Tim Storer, members of the Australian Parliament, who have requested an investigation into the ASIO espionage case.

4. MKOTT wishes to propose that the Federal Prosecutor General of Australia open an investigation against the former Foreign Minister of Australia Alexander Downer who is currently on the Advisory Board of Woodside, as it was under Alexander Downer’s mandate, together with former Prime Minister John Howard, that the espionage occurred.

5. MKOTT continues to gather signatures from the people of Timor-Leste to continue to give our solidarity to our comrades in struggle Bernard Collaery and Witness K, and we will present these signatures at the next hearing on 28 October 2018. We continue to provide our advocacy and support towards the campaign to throw out the charges against our two colleagues and friends.

Viva Comrade Bernard Collaery..!!
Viva Comrade Witness K..!!
Viva Povu Maubere..!!
Viva MKOTT..!!

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Komparasaun entre ekonomia Marxismo no Neoclassical; Analiza ba diferensia entre individualista no klasse iha ekonomia

9/15/2018

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Analiza ba diferensia entre individualista no klasse iha ekonomia;
Komparasaun entre ekonomia Marxismo no Neoclassical
Hakerek-Nain: Tomas Freitas

Introdusaun
Neoclassical economics iha influensa ba ekonomia kapitalista ohin loron; buat nee bele hare’e iha konseitus balun ‘merkadu mak determina presu’, no tama iha etapa ida mak konsege ultra-pasa teoria ‘Labour Theory of Value’, nebe eziste iha tempu inisiu Classical Economics nian. Banati tuir teoria ‘Marshalian Cross’ nebe esplika kona ba teoria Supply and Demand, Neoclassical economics fiar maka’as katak merkadu mak sei fo equilibriu ba presu (Stilwell, 2002). Hanesan konsagra tiha ona iha ‘Say’s Law’ hateten katak supply ba bens e servicos bele kria rasik sira nia merkadu, (Baumol, 1999). Deklarasaun hirak nee persija halo ezaminasaun liu husi estudu empirical, inklui mos neoclassical ninian methodologia deduktivo (Deductive Methodology) mak sei susar hodi justifika. Artiklu nee sei aprezenta diferensia entre ekonomia Marxismo no Neoclassical liu-liu iha kontekstu pontu da vista individualista kontra klasses iha ekonomia agora nian (Contemporary Economy). Essay ida nee mos sei hato’o historia (Background) kona ba oinsa ideas ka teoria original mak funda Neoclassical economics, nebe moris husi ‘Proto-Marginalists’, ‘Revolutionaries’ no ‘Consolidators’, nebe sai nudar ideologia mak forte tebes iha era Capitalismo ohin loron nian.

Historia
Tradisionalmente, idea Neoclassical mai husi ema ulun bot balun iha tempu Classical economics ho ninian politica economist sira mak hanesan Adam Smith ho ninian konseitu Merkadu Livre nebe’e nia ilustra liu husi ninian livro ‘The Wealth of The Nation’, (Smith, 1776), David Ricardo ho ninian ideas ‘Marginal Principle’ (Kaldor, 1956), John Stuart Mill (2007) ho ninian teoria ‘Utilitarianism’, Jeremy Bentham (2009) ho ninian ‘Greatest Happiness’, no Jean Baptiste Say ho ninian teoria famozu ‘Say’s Law’ (Kates, 2003). Idea sira nee hotu mak fo’o inspirasaun ba ekonomista neoclassical sira balun.
Doutrina Neoclassical economy hahu’u husi ultimo 1830s to’o meiu 1850s no sai forte e influensa iha inisiu 1870s, buras no sai famozu ba klasse mediu sira iha meiu 1880s to’o meiu 1890s. Historia ida nee ita bele hare’e hanesan evolusaun ba etapa tolu ka ‘three evolutionary’ nebe inklui ‘The Proto-marginalist’, ‘The Revolutionaries’, no ‘The Consolidators’ nebe sai hanesan ideas original husi Neoclassical economy.

Proto-Marginalistas
Historikamente, evolusaun Neoclassical Economics mai husi fundador lubun balu mak konsidera hanesan autores ba Proto-Marginalists inklui Augustin Cournot, Jules Dupuit, Johann Thunen no Heinrich Gossen. Iha tinan 1838, Agustin Cournot dezenvolve tiha ona ninian ideas Research into the Mathematical Principles of Wealth (2008), Cournot mos dezenvolve no analiza teoria monopoly mak ikus mai hamosu konseitu ‘Profit-maximising producer’. Jules Dupuit hanesan engineer ba Pontes ho ninian ideas ‘Curve of Diminishing Marginal Utility’ iha 1844, (Vickers, 1995), mesmu nee, iha tinan 1861, Dupuit mos iha argumentu kapas no konsege hamosu idea ‘Free Exchange’. Johann Thunen hanesan ema Alemanha mak iha rai no plantasaun barak (German landowner) ema nee dezenvolve esensia husi ‘The Marginal Productivity Theory of Distribution’ iha tinan 1850 (Ekelund & Hebert, 1999). Ikus liu husi fundador Protagonist Marginalist mak Heinrich Gossen ho ninian idea famozu ‘Gossen Second Law’ iha tinan 1854, no deskreve; ‘equalisation between the ratios of exchange of goods to the ratio of marginal disutility of work’ (Blaug, 2003)’. Ho ninian sentido equilibriu entre lojika troka sasan no lojika marginal husi desutilizasaun de servisu. Protagonista nain hat nee hetan suksesu in termus hato’o sira nian teoria original mak ikus mai sai hanesan embrio ba teoria marginal husi neoclassical economics.

Revolusionario
Depois de Proto-Marginalista sira marka no funda tiha ideas ‘Marginal Theory’ husi 1838 to’o ba 1854, Neoclassical Economics komesa hakroat fila fali sira nia nehan liu husi revolusionario-marginalista sira mak hanesan; William Stanley Jevons, Carl Menger no Leon Walras. Iha lansamentu ba ‘Marginal Revolution’, Jevons komesa tau ninian ideas ‘Theory of Political Economy’ iha tinan 1871, Nia komesa fo emphaze ba prinsipiu husi ‘Diminishing marginal utility’ no halo introdusaun ba preferensia individual (Steedman, 1997). Depois nee iha tempu hanesan 1871, revolusionario marginalista seluk Carl Menger husi Austria introdus ninian konseitu ‘Grunds tze’ nebe konsidera hanesan idea baziku husi ‘Marginal value theory’ ka ‘Marginal utility theory’ mesmu la direitamente nia uza termus ‘Marginal’ maibe nia deklara katak konsumedores normalmente iha lista kona ba saida mak nia atu sosa no iha preferensia kona ba sasan ho kualidade diak liu nebe sei fo satisfeitu ba nia a’an, no konsumedores mos iha lista kona ba sasan nebe ladun urjente atu sosa, no sira sei sosa wainhira iha osan restu, (Streissler & Streissler, 1994). Depois de Menger reforsa ninian hanoin kona ba ‘Marginal Utility Theory’, iha tinan 1874 ekonomista ida husi Franca naran Leon Walras, nebe dezenvolve liu tan (Marginalist Theory) no ikus mai formalmente ‘Marginalist Theory’ nakfila a’an ba ‘General Equilibrium Theory’. Iha parte seluk, Walras mos hato’o ninian kontribuisaun ideas balun mak hanesan refleksaun ba monopoly merkadu no kompetisaun mak imperfecto (Tieben, 2009).

Konsolidor
Wainhira halao konsolidasaun ba ideas ekonomia neoclassical husi famozu revolusionariu-marginalista nain-tolu hanesan esplika tiha ona iha palavras mak iha leten, sei iha tan numerous ekonomista seluk mak hakarak hametin liu tan ideas nee. Ekonomista hirak nee mak hanesan; Eugen Bohm-Bawerk ho ninian ideas ‘Capital and Interest’ hakerek iha tinan 1884, iha livro ne’e esplika kona ba parte positivu husi investementu capital ho ninian retornu osan funan (Pressman, 1999). Iha mos Friedrich von Wieser nebe iha tinan 1889 hakarek teoria kona ba Imputasaun ‘Imputation Theory’ nebe deklara katak factor presu determina husi output presu (Albertazzi et al, 1996). Alfred Marshall iha tinan 1890 sai famozu tamba ninian teoria kona ba ‘Marshallian Cross’ nebe analiza merkadu bazeia ba ninian teoria ‘Supply and Demand’, (Stilwell, 2002). John Bates Clark iha tinan 1891 husi Estadus Unidos Americano, fornese ninian konseitu ho naran ‘Marginal Productivity Concept’ ho ninian fiar katak kontribuisaun ba output husi trabaladores adisional sei determina mos valor pagamentu ba trabalhador sira seluk mak persija kampo de trabalho, (Geetika et al, 2008). Irving Fisher mos hola parte iha konsolidador famozu hirak nee, nia inventa ‘Curve Device invention’ hodi kompleta Walras nian teoria ‘Equilibrium Price’ iha 1892 (Fisher, 2007). Fisher ninian servisu ikus nebe kunyesidu iha era post-Keynesian mak ‘deb-deflation theory’ iha 1933, no teoria nee mak Hyman Minsky uza hodi dezenvolve ninian teoria ‘Financial Instability Hypothesis’, (Minsky, 1986).

Hafoin Irving Fisher, ekonomista neoclassical konsolida sira servisu liu husi Knut Wicksell ho ninian ideas Value, Capital and Rent iha 1893 (Lutz, 2006). Philip Wicksteed iha tinan 1894 produs mos ninian hakerek kona ba Co-ordination of Laws of Distribution, no halo ninian kritika ba ekonomista sira balun mak prefere hodi reorganiza fali teoria kona ba distribuisaun. Wicksteed prefere atu uza matematika hanesan metodu investigasaun ho garantia alokasaun de distribuisaun (Marchionatti, 2004). Vilfredo Pareto iha tinan 1896 mos hola parte hanesan jerasaun segundu husi revolusionarios neoclassical nebe’e fornese mos ninian kontribuisaun liu husi hakerek livro kona ba Tastes-and-obstacles (Gomes, 2003) nebe’e kontinua hamoris fila fali general equilibrium theory, mesmu nee Vilfredo kunyesidu hanesan lider ida husi eskola Lausanne mak famozu hanesan eskola neoclassical mak konstrui Leon Walras nian konseitu kona ba General equilibrium theory (Andersen, 2009).

Konsolidador ikus husi neoclassical economics mak Enrico Barone, ekonomista Italiano ida mak entrega ninian dedikasaun tomak hodi banati tuir Leon Walras no Vilfredo Pareto nian ain fatin, ninian kontribuisaun bot liu ba neoclassical school mak halo influensa ba Walras hodi integra ideas balun ba tekniku produsaun (Production Technique), ninian ideas nee konsidera hanesan ekstensaun ida ba marginal productivity theory (Jaffe & Walker, 1983).

Hale’u no hatene tiha konsolidasaun ba iha teoria bar-barak mak hodi suporta ‘Neoclassical economics’ Alfred Marshall deit mak sai famozu liu no bele halo sintesa ba Jevons, Menger no Walras nian teoria. Sintesa nee kunyesidu ho ‘Marshallian Cross’ ho ilustrasaun Supply no Demand mak sai factor determina ba presu mak equilibriu, no nia fiar katak sei fo’o mos satisfeitu ba parte rua konsumedores no vendedores.

Debates Konseitus
Estuda no akompanya tiha prosesu transformasaun husi Classical Economics ba iha Neoclassical Economics, Ita bele hare’e katak originalidade husi prinsipiu merkadu livre mak sirkulasaun sasan iha merkadu (Supply & Demand) no merkadu mak sei determina presu sasan. Teoria ne’e sei desvaloriza tiha Karl Marx nian teoria ‘Labour Theory of Value’ nebe’e Marx fiar katak kualidade husi trabalhadores mak sai factor determinante ba presu sasan nian.

Atu justifika teoria bot rua mak iha leten, tuir mai artiklu nee hakarak apresenta analiza no interpretasaun klean kona ba konseitos no argumentus mak hola parte tiha ona iha teoria rua nee nian laran.

Komparasaun entre Neoclassical no Marxismo;

Deductivismo Vs Materialismo Dialetika Historia
Iha Neoclassical uza metodologia deductivismo, nebe bazeia ba John Stuart Mill, hateten katak; “ a complex subject matter like political economy can only be studied scientifically by means of the deductive method. Since so many causal factors influence economic phenomena, and experimentation is generally not possible, there is no way to employ the methods of induction directly”, (Hausman, 1992, pp14). Sentido husi palavras iha leten hateten katak; “kestaun mak komplexu hanesan political economy so bele scientifikamente estuda liu husi methodologia deductivo. Desde faktor casual barak mak influensa phenomena ekonomia no generalmente experimento la konsege halo, tamba nee mak laiha dalan hodi implementa metodologia direitamente ka ‘induction’.

La han malun ho aproximasaun Neoclassical nian kona ba Methodologia deductivo, ekonomista Marxista nian prefere liu estuda historia no prosesu, mak hanesan ejemplu balun; Materialismo Dialetika Historia, Klase Bourgesa, no Sociadade Capitalista, (Stilwell, 2002), Marxista sira hatene katak liu husi kunyesementu hirak nee sei bele fo’o imagem bot hodi kumprende konstruksaun Capitalismo modern nian, (Lunn, 1982).

Sekuandu aplika methodologia rua nee ba iha ekonomia agora nian (Contemporary Economy), sei mosu diferensia balun. Deductivismo iha era ida ne’e, sei utiliza nafatin husi ekonomista Rationalista sira (Rationalists Economists), (Katouzian, 1980) ezemplu mak hanesan instituisaun financeiru internasional sira hanesan Banku Mundial no Fundo Monetario Internasional, instituisaun rua nee sei kaer nafatin engkontru regular kona ba Annual General Meeting-AGM (IMF, 2010) hodi halo evaluasaun ba sira nian estrategia no methodologia, liu husi AGM nee mos sira bele estuda aktividade ekonomia mak sira suporta tiha ona liu husi sira nian programa, nebe dala barak sira mak deside rasik durante fulan sanulu resin rua nian laran.

Deductivismo karik bele diak mos ba ekonomista sira balun hodi halo sira nian justifikasaun depois to’o iha projeitu ninian rohan. Iha kritika balun mak ita tenke konsidera katak observasaun direita (Induction Methodology) dalaruma mos bele la konsege halo kobertura ba evidensia balun mak akontese iha fatin diferente ho tempu mak hanesan durante prosesu observasaun nian laran. Iha biban seluk opozisaun ba deductivismo, Marxista sira fiar katak ho historia materialismo mak sei fo’o kunyesementu profundu kona ba sociadade bourgesa iha termos kumprende sistema ‘Mode of Production’ (Rockmore, 2002), Haktuir Stalin nian liafuan dehan katak “historical materialism is the extension of the principle of dialectical materialism to study of social life” (Rockmore, 2002, pp7). Nebe ho ninian sentido hateten katak “historia materialismo nee hanesan ekstensaun husi prinsipiu dialetika materialismo nebe estuda kona ba sociadade nian moris”.

Marxista sira fiar katak konseitu materialismo dialetika historia sei halo ema kumprende didiak kona ba ekonomia capitalista ohin loron nian, tamba capitalismo hanesan ‘mode of production’ ka Meius de Produsaun nebe involve karakter techniko no social, no halo produsaun ba bens e servicos. Karakter social signifika katak relasaun entre klasse, nebe’e trabalhadores hanesan klasse proletariadu no bourgesa hanesan klasse mediu mak sai nain ba fabrika ka industria, inklui mos nain ba technologia no material prima ka ‘raw material’ (Stilwell, 2002).

Individual Vs Klasses
Se’es malun ho teoria Neoclassical, ekonomista Marxista sira halo analiza foka liu ba klasse laos individual. Klasse signifika grupo proletariadu hanesan forsa de trabalho mak halo produsaun ba bens e servicos, no bourgesa hanesan capitalista mak sai nain ba meius da produsaun. Individual bazeia ba teoria Neoclassical mak konsumedor no vendedor nebe’e livre faan no sosa sira nian sasan; iha lianguazem seluk hateten katak alokasaun iha ekonomia merkadu livre, faan no sosa sasan sei akontese voluntariamente entre individual sira (Bergh, et al, 1997). Idea ‘free exchange’ ka Merkadu livre nee implementa tiha ona iha siklu 19th century nebe’e adopta husi ekonomista neo-liberal sira no ikus mai sai famozu hanesan ideologia capitalismo, mak hetan ninian suporta maka’as husi instituisaun financeiru internasionais.

Terminologia rua iha leten to’o agora sei relevante nafatin, tamba iha tendensia katak individual bazeia ba teoria Neoclassical nudar konsumedor sei iha forsa ultimo hodi determina presu sasan. Klasse iha ‘Contemporary economy’ ka ekonomia modernu mos sei relevante tamba problema ekonomia agora ninian nebe kumplexu hamosu injustisa iha fatin servisu bar-barak, trabalhadores hanesan klasse proletariadu mak siempre lakon sira nian direitu, tamba nee iha fatin barak ona trabalhadores sira organiza a’an hodi establese sira nian sindikatu, uniaun no organizasaun legais rasik hodi proteze sira nian direitu no halo advokasia ba sira nian interese komun.

Utility Vs Value
Diferente husi teoria Neoclassical, Ekonomista Marxista sira halo analiza ba produsaun bazeia ba ‘Labour Theory of Value’ ka teoria nebe’e mak valoriza servisu trabalhadores sira bazeia ba kuantidade no kualidade forsa de trabalhadores nian. Maibe Neoclassical halo analiza ba merkadu bazeia ba ‘Theory of Utility’ ka teoria de utilizasaun, ejemplu mak hanesan sasan mak produs ba iha merkadu ninian folin sei determina husi ‘Consumer satisfaction’ ka konsumedores nian gostu, (Stilwell, 2002).

Banati tuir Carl Menger nian teoria ‘Marginal Utility Theory’, hateten katak wainhira konsumedor deside atu gasta sira nian osan hodi sosa sasan ka produtu, sira sei depende ba sasan ka produtu nebe mak hatudu ninian kualidade diak no fo satisfeitu ba konsumedor nee.

Haklaken tuir William Stanley Jevons ninian teoria ‘Diminishing Marginal Utility’ katak wainhira konsumedor deside atu aloka ninian pagamentu ba iha sasan balun, konsumedor ne’e sei koko ka ezamina sasan ida ba ida no koko hodi identifika sasan ida nebe mak hatudu liu ninian kualidade ka sasan nebe mak fo liu ninian satisfeitu ba konsumedor nee, ijemplu simples mak hanesan sosa roupa ka vistidu, ema nee sei koko no hatais ida ba ida to’o nia satisfeitu no komfortavel ho ninian desizaun. Satisfeitu ho vistidu nebe mak nia deside tiha ona atu sosa, ne sei determina vistidu nian folin, tamba vendedor hatene tiha ona konsumedor nian hakarak, entaun vendedor vistidu nee sei tau folin mak a’as para atu bele hetan lukru mak maximu.

Iha realidade ‘Utiliy theory’ no ‘Labour theory of value’ sei relevante nafatin, tamba teoria rua nee bele aplika depende ba iha merkadu ka industria mak bot ka largo. Ijemplu; kuandu hau nudar konsumedor ba iha negosiante local iha area rural ou remota nebe kategoria kiik hanesan business furniture ba produs kadeira ka meja, teoria utility ka marginal utility sei susar hodi implementa tamba hau nian satisfeitu sei la bele aplika ho razaun kadeira ho meja laiha kuantidade mak barak para hau hodi ezamina ka koko tamba fatin business furniture nee laos dealer mak hatama sasan bar-barak. Business kiikoan hanesan nee normalmente determina sira nian presu rasik depende ba iha presu material prima no kustu de trabalho inklui mos lukru balun hodi hatutan ka halo bot sira nian business. Iha parte seluk sekuandu hau hanesan konsumedor no hau ba atu kompra meja ka kadeira balun iha loja bot furniture nian nebe hanesan mos ‘dealer’ ka ‘retailer’ parese hau bele aplika Utility theory tamba vendedor loja nee reprezenta kompania bot nebe iha kuantidade meja no kadeira barak hamutuk ho presu nebe variable ba hau, atu nune hau bele koko no ezamina tuir hau nian hakarak no gostu.

Equilibrium Vs Underconsumption
Bazeia ba teoria neoclassical, ‘General Equilibrium theory’ signifika katak presu ba sasan no factor mak halo produsaun ba sasan nee sei determina husi balansu ‘supply & demand’. Hanesan mos deklara tiha ona iha ‘Say’s Law’ nebe hateten katak ‘supply’ sei kria ninian ‘demand’ iha ijemplu rua mak sei bele esplika konseitu ida nee, ida; ijemplu wainhira iha tempu natal loja bar-barak hatama roupa ho kuantidade barak tamba sira fiar katak iha tempu natal konsumedores sei sosa sira nian roupa hodi ba misa no hatais ba iha loron bot. Entaun saida mak akontese wainhira roupa tama barak ema sosa mos aumenta barak no iha tempo hanesan vendedores mos hasae ninian folin makas atu hodi hetan ninian lukru barak, maibe wainhira loron bot liu tiha, folin sasan sira nee sei tun ba presu normal.

Ijemplu ida temi tiha ona nee, mos reflekta teoria Marshallian Cross, nebe hateten determinasaun ba presu sei depende ba iha quantidade demand no supply, ijemplu mak hanesan ita bele hare’e iha nasaun seluk hanesan Australia, Inglatera, Estadus Unidos America ka nasaun nebe ninian ekonomia diferente ho ita, depois de natal roupa iha loja sira folin tun makas, entaun saida mak akontese iha loron ‘Boxing Day’ 26 de Dezembro dadersan sedu deit ema ba forma-linha naruk iha odamatan loja nian oin, molok loja nee loke para konsumedor sira tama ho hadauk malun sasan hodi sosa. Maibe tuir Marxian economics, sira hateten katak ‘Oversupply’ sei prejudika ‘Underconsumption’ nebe signifika katak faan sasan barak liu iha merkadu sei afekta ba konsumedores nian forsa de kompra, nebe sei bele akontese falansu iha merkadu. Ijemplu ba kazu ida nee ita la persija ba rai liur, wainhira governu hasai osan barak hodi sosa fo’os toneladas ba toneladas husi Vietnam no Laos, no laiha kalkulasaun fiksu husi forsa de kompra kada familia ida-idak, entaun saida mak akontese fo’os barak mak sai a’at iha armazem no tinan tinan ita rona katak governu sunu fo’os tamba a’at no lahuk. Ita labele fo sala ba iha falansu distribuisaun tamba distribuisaun mos hola parte sistema merkadu nian laran.

Hanesan refleksaun ba sistema merkadu iha era agora nian, wainhira presu folin tun sei provoka konsumedores hodi sosa, no wainhira konsumedores barak sosa entaun supply sasan tenke aumenta, no derepente deit vendedores hasae ninian folin no persija aumenta stock husi fabrika; no wainhira fabrika aumenta ninian suply, presu sasan nian monu fila fali. Fenomena nee mak hanesan siklus ida-idak mak kesi-malun tuir ninian movimentu nee rasik. No bazeia ba Marx nee mak ‘unstable economy’ ka ekonomia la estabil nebe’e signifika supply barak liu sei resulta konsumu menus (underconsumption), no merkadu bele monu ba krize.

Marginal Vs Structural
Originalidade teoria ‘Marginal Analysis’ mai husi David Ricardo ninian teoria ‘Marginal Principle’ nebe uza tiha ona hodi halo analiza ba ‘Rent’, ‘Leasing’ ka Aluga no ekonomista Neoclassical sira adopta tiha ona teoria nee, tamba sira fiar katak factors hotu-hotu iha relasaun ba malun. Maibe, atu aplika ba Marginal Principle Ricardo introdus tiha ona prinsipiu de substituisaun ka ‘Principle of Substitution’ ho razaun atu hodi kumprende relasaun entre trabalhadores no rai (Kaldor, 1956).

Kontradiksaun ba iha neoclassical nian teoria marginal analysis, Marx nian structural analysis halo kritika ba iha estado hanesan capitalista mak iha poder. Iha ninian manifesto communist Marx esplika exploitasaun mak halo husi bourgesa ba iha trabalhadores, no Marx identifika katak bourgesa mak iha klasses mediu ka sociadade affluente (affluent society) kontinua halo manipulasaun ho razaun hodi mantein nafatin poder capitalista. Marx konsidera sistema capitalista hanesan meius ida husi estado atu hodi proteze sira nian rezime, no iha rezime nee inklui instituisaun estado nian mak hanesan; policia, Sistema judiciariu, universidade no religiaun sira. Kritika ba iha instituisaun hirak nee ho razaun katak instituisaun sira nee mak siempre fo sira nian bensa no grasa ba estado no kria konsensia falsu ‘false consciousness’ (Newton & Deth, 2005).

Konkluzaun
Idea original mak mai husi classical economist hanesan Ricardo ho ninian marginal principle, John Stuart Mil ho Utilitarianism, Jeremy Bentham ho ninian great happiness inklui mos Jean Baptiste Say ho ninian Say’s Law, hato’o tiha ona mai katak teoria grande hirak nee hotu to’o agora sei relevante iha sociadade nian let. Transformasaun ideas husi classical mai ba neoclassical no husi neoclassical ba neo-liberal no to’o merkadu livre nee hatudu katak ekonomia iha mundo nee lao progresivu tebes.

Evolusaun husi proto-marginalista mak hanesan Cournot, Dupuit, Thunen and Gossen tun mai revolucionariu sira mak hanesan Jevons, Menger and Walras, Hamutuk ho konsolidador sira mak hanesan Bohm-Bawerk, Wieser, Marshal, Clark, Fisher, Wicksell, Wicksteed, Pareto and Barone hatudu katak ideas neoclassical halo ninian evolusaun duni bazeia ba iha dinamiku tempu neba nian no to’o agora konseitus hirak nee sei adopta nafatin iha ekonomia modern.

Essay nee explora tiha ona ideas fundamental barak husi konseitus bot rua mak mai husi ekonomia Neoclassical no Marxismo nian. Liu husi expozisaun ida nee, hato’o tiha ona mos komparasaun entre teoria elegante rua nee, liu-liu neoclassical sira nian teoria kona ba utility, marginal utility no supply & demand nebe mak desvaloriza tiha Marx nian teoria labour value of theory. Maibe iha realidade teoria hirak nee sei relevante nafatin no sei bele implementa bazeia ba kondisaun merkadu.

Iha parte seluk mos, Karl Marx hato’o tiha ona kontribuisaun teoria fundamento balun mak sei eziste iha phenomena ekonomia agora ninian. Liu husi konseitus mak hanesan materialism dialetika historia, analiza klasse, labour theory of value, underconsumption no structural analysis, argumentus no konseitus hirak nee uza tiha ona iha debates bar-barak iha arena politika ekonomia nian laran. Ijemplu mak hanesan; Marx nian teoria kona ba ‘underconsumption’ nebe iha ekonomia marxismo nian hateten katak; ‘oversupply’ sei prejudika ‘underconsumption’ no sei resulta falansu iha sistema merkadu. Mesmu iha kestaun nee ekonomista neoclassical sira fiar nafatin katak supply no demand mak sei bele kria equilibriu presu iha merkadu.

Referensia
Albertazzi, L., Libardi, M., & Poli, R., 1996. ‘The school of Franz Brentano’, Kluwer Academic Publisher, Netherlands

Andersen, S, E., 2009. ‘Schumpeter's Evolutionary Economics: A Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Engine of Capitalism’, Anthem Press, United Kingdom

Baumol, J, W., 1999. ‘Retrospectives Say’s Law’, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol 13, No 1, pp 195-204

Bentham, J., 2009. ‘Deontology or, the science of morality: In which the harmony and co-incidence of duty and self-interest’, Bibliobazaar LLC, United States

Bergh, V, D, C, J, M, J., Straaten, V, D, J., & International Society for Ecological Economics., 1997. ‘Economy and ecosystems in change: analytical and historical approaches’, Edward Elgar Publishing, United States

Blaug, M., 2003. ‘Economic theory in retrospect’, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom

Cournot, A, A., 2008. ‘Researches into the Mathematical Principles of Wealth’, Bibliobazaar, New York

Ekelund, B, R., & Hebert, F, R., 1999. ‘Secret origins of modern microeconomics: Dupuit and the engineers’, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago

Fisher, I., 2007. ‘The nature of capital and income’, Cosimo Inc, New York

Geetika., Ghosh, P., & Choudhury, R, P., 2008. ‘Managerial economics’, Tata McGraw-Hill, India

Gomes, L., 2003. ‘The economics and ideology of free trade: a historical review’, Edward Elgar Publishing, United Kingdom

Hausman, M, D., 1992. ‘Essays on philosophy and economic methodology’, Cambridge University Press, United States

International Monetary Fund., 2010. ‘About the annual meetings’, available from http://www.imf.org/external/am/2010/about.htm

Jaffe, W., & Walker, A, D., 1983. ‘William Jaffe’s Essays on Walras’, Cambridge University Press, United States

Kaldor, N., 1956. ‘Alternative theories of distribution’, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol 23, No 2, pp 83-100

Kates, S., 2003. ‘Two Hundred Years of Say's Law: Essays on Economic Theory's Most Controversial Principle’, Edward Elgar Publishing, United Kingdom

Katouzian, H., 1980. ‘Ideology and method in economics’, Macmillan, London

Lunn, E., 1982. ‘Marxism and modernism: an historical study of Lukacs, Brecht, Benjamin, and Adorno’, University of California Press, United States

Lutz, A, F., 2006. ‘The theory of interest’, Transaction Publisher, New Jersey

Marchionatti, R., 2004. ‘Early mathematical economics’, 1871-1915’, Routledge, New York

Mill, S, J., 2007. ‘Utilitarianism, Liberty & Representative Government’, Wildside Press LLC, United States

Minsky, P, H., 1986. ‘Stabilizing an unstable economy’, Yale University Press, United States

Newton, K., & Deth, W, J., 2005. ‘Foundations of comparative politics: democracies of the modern world’, Cambridge University Press, United States

Pressman, S., 1999. ‘Fifty major economists’, Routledge, New York

Rockmore, T., 2002. ‘Marx after Marxism: the philosophy of Karl Marx’, Wiley-Blackwell, Great Britain

Steedman, I., 1997. Jevons's Theory of Political Economy and the 'Marginalist Revolution’, The European Journal off the History of Economic Thought, Vol 4, No 1, pp 43-64 available from: http://pdfserve.informaworld.com.ezproxy2.library.usyd.edu.au/50145_731193556_739386890.pdf

Stilwell, F., 2002. ‘Political Economy: the contest of economic ideas’ Oxford University Press, Singapore.

Streissler, W, E., & Streissler, M., 1994. ‘Carl Menger’s lectures to crown Prince Rudolph of Austria’, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, United Kingdom

Tieben, B., 2009. ‘The concept of equilibrium in different economic traditions: a historical investigation’, Rozenberg Publishers, Amsterdam

Vickers, D., 1995. ‘The tyranny of the market: a critique of theoretical foundations’, The University of Michigan Press, United States

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Movementu kontra okupasaun tasi timor (MKOTT)Deklarasaun Públiku Konaba Akuzasaun Hasoru Kompanhero "Witness K" no Bernard Collaery husi Governu Australia

9/15/2018

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MOVIMENTU KONTRA OKUPASAUN TASI TIMOR (MKOTT)
Díli, 17 Septembro 2018

Deklarasaun Públiku Konaba Akuzasaun Hasoru Kompanhero "Witness K" no Bernard Collaery husi Governu Australia

Deklarasaun Publiko ida ne’e MKOTT organiza relasiona ho loron julgamentu ba Timor-Leste nian Amigo Bot Nain Rua; Kompanhero da Luta Bernard Collaery ho Witness K, ne’ebe loron 12 fulan Septembro ba atende julgamentu iha Tribunal Canberra, Australia. Ita nian belun nain rua ne’e hetan akuzasaun tanba fo sai ba publiko kona ba Australia espionajen hodi monta aparelu iha Palacio do Governu Timor-Leste nian no akapta engkontru estratejiku Governu Timor-Leste nian sobre negosiasaun Fronteira Maritima iha tinan 2004 nian laran.

Ohin liu husi Asinatura Rihun Ida Atus Tolu Resin ne’ebe mak konsege asina iha Spanduk Mutin ho Metro Sanulu (10 Meter) Rihun Ida Resin ne ami bele dehan katak representa ona Povu Timor-Leste nian Solidariadade ba Kompanhero Bernard Collaery ho Witness K, mensagem solidariade ne’e, fo hanoin fali istoria ne’ebe ami nian Avo konta mai ami, ne’ebe deskreve povu Timor liu Rihun Nen Nulu mak mate hodi defende sira nian Amigo Combatente Tropa Forca Australiano Sira ne’ebe mak mate iha Segundu Guera Mundial iha tinan 1942-1945.

Hodi hanoin hikas heroi sira ne’ebe mate iha funu Segundu Guera Mundial;

1. MKOTT kondena maka'as akuzasaun hasoru Kompanhero Bernard Collaery ho Witness K, akuzasaun ne’e hanesan mos Moe Bot ida nebe’e hatudu husi Nasaun ne’ebe kunyesidu promove liberdade da espresaun no mos demokrasia. MKOTT Sente triste ba nasaun bot hanesan Australia ne’ebe kontinua han matak ba ninian vizinho sira. MKOTT hare’e liu husi akuzasaun ida ne’e governu Australia iha planu atu halo tauk ema barak mak hakarak deskobre governu Australia nian atetude ladiak hasoru ninian nasaun vizinho sira.

2. MKOTT husu ba Tribunal Australia nian atu Hapara Akuzasaun hasoru Kompanhero Bernard Collaery ho kliente Witness K, tanba tuir lolos tribunal tenke salva guarda Sasin Sira no halo kondenasaun hasoru hahalok espionajen, laos kontrario fali.

3. MKOTT apoiu maka’s ba inisiativu husi Sr. Andrew Wilkie MP, Senadór Nick McKim, Senadór Rex Patrick no Senadór Tim Storer membru Parlementu Australia nian ne’ebe hakarak loke fali investigasaun ba iha kazu espionajen mak halo husi ASIO.

4. MKOTT hakarak propoin ba Prokurador Jeral Federal Australia nian atu loke investigasaun ba eis Ministro Estranjeiro Sr. Alexander Downer ne’ebe mak agora dadaun ne tur hanesan kuadru konsellu Kompania Woodside nian, ho razaun iha Alexander Downer nian mandatu hamutuk ho eis Primeiro Ministro John Howard mak kazu espionazen refere akontese.

5. MKOTT sei nafatin mobiliza asinatura husi povu Timor-Leste hotu atu kontinua fo ami nian solidariade ba Kompanhero da Luta Bernard Collaery ho Witness K, no ami sei apresenta Asinatura hirak ne iha loron julgamentu tuir mai iha loron 28 de Outubro 2018. Ami Sei nafatin kontinua hodi fo suporta ate tribunal hapara akuzasaun hasoru belun nain rua ne.

Viva Companhero Bernard Collaery..!!
Viva Companhero Witness K..!!
Viva Povu Maubere..!!
Viva MKOTT..!!

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Revista Kritiku kona ba Akordu Unitizasaun Internasional (AUI) Asina husi Timor-Leste ho Australia iha Loron 6 de Marsu 2003.

9/5/2017

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Revista Kritiku kona ba Akordu Unitizasaun Internasional (AUI) Asina husi Timor-Leste ho Australia iha Loron 6 de Marsu 2003.

Autor, Tomas Freitas

Iha loron 1 de Septembro 2017 iha Copenhagen, Dinamarka, Tribunal Permanente Arbitrasaun fo sai Nota da Impressa hodi update resultadu Konsiliasaun entre Timor-Leste ho Australia. Bazeia ba noticia parte rua kongratula ba sira nian atinzementu. Mesmo ne, interpretasaun ba statementu husi Chefe Negosiador Timor-Leste nian Maun Bot Xanana Gusmao no Ministra Estranzeiro Australia nian Julie Bishop, husik hela perguntas barak atu responde. Haktuir deklarasaun Maun Bot Xanana Gusmao:

“Hau fo obrigadu ba komisaun nebe resolve ho sira nian kunyesementu hodi halibur parte rua hamutuk, liu husi tempo naruk ho prosesu nebe susar, apoiu ami hodi atinzi ami nian mehi ba soverania total no finaliza ami nian Fronteira Maritima ho Australia. Buat ne konkordansia historiku ida, nebe marka hela etapa dahuluk husi era foun amizade entre Timor-Leste ho Australia” (Permanent Court Arbitration, 2017,pp1).

Deklarasaun mak kuaze hanesan mos hato’o husi Julie Bishop: “loron Ida ne mak loron nebe importante (Landmark day) ba iha relasaun entre Timor-Leste ho Australia. Konkordansia ida ne apoiu interese nasional husi parte nasaun rua nian, haforsa liu tan relasaun nebe kesi metin entre governu rua no ami nian povu. Hau fo obrigadu ba Komisaun nian papel hodi lori parte rua ba hamutuk” (Permanent Court Arbitration, 2017, Pp2).

Deklarasaun rua ne iha ida-idak nian alsersu; mai ita examina statementu rua ne. Husi parte Timor-Leste nian maun bot Xanana Gusmao fiar katak Timor-Leste ne sei atinzi ninian mehi ba “soverania total” nebe bele interpreta katak Timor-Leste sei hetan linha mediana ho linha laterais, ou ho liafuan seluk dehan Timor-Leste ho Australia sei totalmente marka sira nian linha fronteiras maritima. Iha soring seluk, Julie Bishop fiar katak konkordansia ne apoiu nasaun rua nian interese nasional. Saida mak sai hanesan interese nasional ba Australia?

Bazeia ba Interese Nasional Australia nian dokumentu ida nebe publika iha loron 14 de Maio 2003, hateten katak Australia iha razaun fundamento walu (8) hodi implementa Akordu Unitizasaun Internasional (AUI). Razaun forte ida mak hakerek iha “Aneksu E husi Tratadu Tasi Timor, katak Kampo Greater Sunrise sei hafahe (Unitised) ba area 20.1% tama iha Area Konjunta Dezenvolvemento Petroleum (JPDA), no area 79.9% entrega ba Australia. Hanesan mos ho provizaun fahe rendementu nebe mak iha tratadu Tasi Timor katak area 20.1% husi kampo Greater Sunrise atribui bai ha JPDA nian laran, no 90% rendementu husi rekursu naturais refere tama ba Timor-Leste, no 10% fo ba Australia” (Journal of the Senate, 2003), dokumentu kumpletu bele aksesu iha La’o Hamutuk nian website (Government of Australia, 2007).

Hanesan mensiona iha leten, Tratadu Tasi Timor 2002 hamosu aneksu E no Akordu Unitizasaun Internasional (AUI) spesifikamente hakerek detailho iha Aneksu E. dokumentu ne asina iha loron 6 de Marsu 2003 husi eis Ministro Estranzeiro Australia nian Alexander Downer no mos eis Ministra Estado da Konsellu Ministros Sra. Dra. Ana Pesoa. Akordu ne validu iha loron 23 de Fevreiru 2007 hafoin ratifika husi Parlemento Nasional Timor-Leste nian, nebe asina husi Eis-Presidente do Parlamento Nasional Dr. Francisco Guterres Lu Olo, nebe agora hanesan Presidente da Republika. Dokumentu ne esklarese detailho area 20.1% ho 79.9% nebe hafahe Kampo Sunrise ho Troubador entre nasaun rua, no buat ne esplika iha artigu 7 iha kraik:

ARTIGU 7
Liafuan ‘Apportionment’ bele interpreta = (distribuisaun)

Distribuisaun Unidade Petroleum

Produsaun Petroleum husi Posu (Reservoirs) tenke distribui entre JPDA ho Australia bazeia ba rasio 20.1% ba JPDA no 79.9% ba Australia.

Bazeia ba artigu numero 4: Rasio 79.9% laos deit inklui reservoirs ninian luan, no mos rendementu husi kampo refere maibe mos inklui kontrola rekursu naturais ho lei no regulamento Australia nian, (IUA, 2003, Pp 4). Mesmo Australia uza razaun ne, Timor-Leste bele koko explora Artigu numero 8 hodi kontra hasoru artigu numero 7 nebe hakerek iha Akordu Unitizasaun Internasional nian laran nudar posibilidade ida hodi halo mudansa bai ha distribuisaun kampo Greater Sunrise,

ARTIGU 8
Artigu numero 8, Paragraf 1. deskreve posibilidade hodi halo re-distribuisaun (Reapportionment) ba iha Unidade Petroleum iha kampo Greater Sunrise. No area 20.1% ho 79.9% bele iha mudansa sekuandu:

“Alinea (a). Parte Australia ka Timor-Leste hatama proposta ba kompania Operador nebe mak bele redetermina rasio distribuisaun (Apportionment ratio).

Alinea (b). Australia ho Timor-Leste konkorda hamutuk hodi minimiza numeros rasio distribuisaun nebe evalua tiha ona.

Alinea (c). Kualker redeterminasaun husi rasio distribuisaun sei labele akontese iha tinan lima (5) nian laran, maibe iha eksepsaun katak redeterminasaun sei bele akontese iha fulan sanulu resin rua (12) nian laran wainhira produsaun husi kampo minarai komesa tiha ona.

Alinea (d.) Kompania Operador so utiliza deit software nebe mak komersiamente publiku bele aksesu atu hodi redetermina Rasio Distribuisaun. So uza dadus nebe governu rua iha atu sai hanesan data (date) ka evidensia, no kompania Operador sei utiliza hanesan proposta hodi halo redeterminasaun, no dadus sira hotu nebe analiza tiha ona hodi redetermina rasio distribuisaun sei entrega fila fali ba governua rua hamutuk ho sira nian proposta. Kompania Operador tenke uza razaun sira hotu nebe forte atu hodi kumpleta redeterminasaun ho durasaun tempu loron atus ida rua nulu (120) nian laran.

Alinea (e). Kualker mudansa mak akontese iha rasio distribuisaun nebe hamosu husi proposta redeterminasaun bazeia ba subparagraph (a) sei iha afektu wainhira konkorda husi Autoridade Regulatorio ou, sekuandu refere ba determinasaun peritus nian, no sekuandu peritus halo desizaun final.

Alinea (f). Kualker mudansa mak akontese iha Rasio Distribuisaun (Apportionment Ratio) tenke iha Retrospective, no tenke iha ajustamentu ba recivus no gastus sira hotu.

Paragraf (2) Se karik paragrah 1, Australia ka Timor-Leste hatama proposta hodi hare fila fali (review) Rasio Distribusaun. Hanesan ninian kontinuasaun husi review, Rasio Distribuisaun parese sei iha alterasaun husi konkordansia entre Australia ho Timor-Leste.” (IUA, 2003, Pp5).

Alinea A deklara katak Kualker Australia ka Timor-Leste bele hatama proposta ba Kompania Operador, iha kazu ne Kompania Woodside mak sai hanesan Operador hodi halo redeterminasaun bai ha Rasio Distribuisaun. Maibe hanesan ita hotu hatene katak, Timor-Leste ladun iha relasaun diak ho kompania Woodside relasiona ho debate kona ba kestaun Pipeline, nebe’e Timor-Leste hakarak kadoras ne bele dada mai iha Futuru Plantasaun LNG nian iha Be Asu, duke aseita proposta husi Woodside nian uza deit mekanismu (Floating LNG) Plantasaun LNG nebe namlele deit iha tasi leten. Perguntas mak ne, Bele ka Australia mak hatama proposta hodi halo alterasaun ba Rasio Distribuisaun?

Iha posibiliadade atu hodi aplika Alinea B, sekuandu parte husi nasaun rua hakarak teb-tebes atu aumenta sira nian kuantidade produsaun, signifika Alinea ida ne seidauk bele aplika wainhira faze produsaun seidauk komesa. Hakerek-Nain hanoin katak; Sei la atu rasional ba parte rua atu konkorda halo mudansa sekuandu fo benefisiu deit bai ha parte ida.

Maibe iha dunik lojiku (make sense) husi Alinea C, katak Kompania Operador persija tempu tinan lima atu hodi examina proposta dokumentu sira hotu molok re-determina Rasio Distribuisaun.
Kompania Operador so deit uza Software nebe komersialmente public bele aksesu atu hodi examina no redetermina Rasio. Maibe iha kestaun ne, parte ida iha liu vantazem hodi aksesu software teknolozia kompara ho parte seluk.

Timor-Leste parese iha oportunidade uza Artigu numero 8 hodi kontra Artigu numero 7. Artigu numero 8 bele mos sei favorese Timor-Leste, maibe parte rua sei persija nafatin halo amandamentu ba Artigu numero 2, hanesan tuir mai iha kraik:

ARTIGU 2
Sei la Perjudika (Without prejudice)

Paragraf (1) Sei laiha buat ida mak tama iha Akordu ne, Sei laiha lei seluk mak aplika wainhira Akordu ne implementa tiha ona, ou hanesan konsikuensia husi Akordu ne, sei laiha lei seluk mak aplika iha Area Unidade sira nebe deside tiha ona husi Akordu ne:

Alinea (a) Bele interpreta perjudika ou afekta pozisaun kualker Australia ou Timor-Leste nian mak hanesan direitu hodi reklama sira nian kestaun Fronteira Maritima; no

Alinea (b) bele mos bazeia ba sira nian argumentus (basis for asserting), suporta, nega, ou limita pozisaun kualker Australia ou Timor-Leste mak iha relasaun ho reklamasaun ba Fronteira Maritima, (IUA, 2003, Pp3).

Artigu numero 2 klaru sei la fo dalan ba Timor-Leste ho Australia atu hodi reclama sira nian direitu ba Fronteira Maritima. Sekuandu parte rua hakarak altera Artigu ne, sira tenke halo tuir Artigu 26 nebe koalia kona ba oinsa maneija disputa (Settlement of Disputes), hanesan tuir mai ne:

ARTIGU 26
Maneija Disputa

Paragraf (1) Kualker disputa kona ba interpretasaun ou aplikasaun husi Akordu ne tenke ser iha posibilidade hodi halo konsultasaun ou negosiasaun.

Paragraf (2) relasiona ho paragraf (3), sekuandu disputa sei labele resolve ho maneira mak spesifikamente hateten tiha ona iha paragraf (1) ou kualker prosedur mak konkorda tiha ona, kazu mak disputa bele hatama husi kualker governu rua, bai ha Tribunal Arbitrazen, nebe mak eskreve tiha ona iha aneksu IV husi Akordu Unitizasaun Internasional ne.

Paragraf (3) sekuandu iha kazu disputa mai husi proposta mak relasiona ho redeterminsaun Rasio Distribuisaun husi Artigu numero 8, paragraph (1) ou relasiona ho oinsa sukat (Concerning the measurement) nebe artikula iha Artigu numero 24, husi kuantidade gas no likuidu, Timor-Leste ho Australia tenke aponta peritus ida hodi determina kestaun refere. Governu rua iha tempo loron nen nulu (60) atu hodi notifika ba malun kona ba kestaun disputa, no koko atu iha konkordansia kona ba apontamentu peritus refere. Sekuandu, durante period ne mak la hetan konkordansia, governu rua tenke halo tuir procedural mak spesifika tiha ona iha Aneksu V. Peritus nebe aponta tiha ona tenke halao ninian servisu bazeia ba termus mak iha Aneksu V. Peritus nian desizaun mak final ona, no iha ninian (binding) ou iha lian Indonesia dehan (Ikatan Hukum), ka ita bele dehan iha ninian (Pezo Legal) ba iha Governu rua no mos bai ha Sunrise Joint Ventures, Desizaun husi peritus ne mos bele rezerva hela ba iha eventu ruma mak failha ka bai ha erru ruma mak mosu. (IUA, 2003, Pp13).

Sekuandu, kualker parte rua hakarak aplika saida mak iha paragraph 1, bele ka parte rua iha tempu mak sufisiente atu hodi halo konsultasaun no negosiasaun, wainhira konsidera hela deit fulan ida atu hodi hetan konkordansia final? No sekuandu disputa la konsege resolve bazeia ba dalan mak spesifika tiha ona iha paragraph 1, hakarak ka parte rua hahu’u fila fali rejistu kazu foun iha Tribunal Arbitrazen? Hare’e ba tempu no rekursu mak parte rua gasta tiha ona iha prosesu konsiliasaun nebe mak lao dadaun ne, bele kalae parte rua iha vontade atu halo dala ida tan? No sekuandu iha disputa mak relasiona ho kuantidade gas no likuidu, parte rua sei aponta peritus ida atu hodi deside bazeia ba regulamentu no procedural ma iha Aneksu V; Hare’e ba esperensia, iha inisiu husi prosesu konsiliasaun, Ministra Estranzeiro Australia nian Julie Bishop kestiona kapabilidade komisaun nian wainhira atu implementa servisu komisaun nian hodi resolve kazu ne. Sekarik kestaun hanesan mak mosu tan fali, Australia bele respeita kalae peritus ne?

Konkluzaun

Atiklu ne analiza tiha ona detailhamente kualker posibilidade ba Timor-Leste hodi konfronta Akordu Unitizasaun Internasional (AUI), nebe mak dezenha hodi fo benefisiu deit ba parte ida, iha kazu ne mak Australia. Hakerek-Nain fiar katak parte rua parese sei hetan desizaun final liu husi dalan ignora reklamasaun ba direitu Fronteira Maritima no sei adere nafatin ba iha distribuisaun (Apportionment) original mak iha Aneksu E. Bele mos parte nasaun rua hetan konkordansia atu hodi komesa explorasaun liu husi meius adopta fila fali ‘Solusaun Kreativa’ nebe fahe profits 50:50 porsentu. Iha kazu ne parte rua Timor-Leste ho Australia hakarak teb-tebes (desperately) atu komesa dezenvolvementu Kampo Greater Sunrise ho razaun Timor-Leste nian minarai husi Kampo Bayu Undan komesa maran dadaun ona, no Australia nian fasilidade plantasaun LNG iha Wickham Point-Darwin mos sei bele abandona iha tinan hirak mai ne tamba laiha supply gas.

Referensia

Government of Australia., 2003. ‘Australian National Interest’, available at http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/Boundary/2002/IUAnia.pdf

International Unitisation Agreement., 2003. Available at http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/Boundary/IUA.pdf

Permanent Court of Arbitration, 2017., ‘Conciliation between the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste and the Commonwealth of Australia’, Press Release, No 9, 31st of September 2017. Available at https://pcacases.com/web/sendAttach/2230

The Parliament Of The Commonwealth Of Australia., 2003. ‘Australian National Interest’, Journal of The Senate. No 76. 14 May 2003. Available at http://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/senate/work/journals/2003/jnlp_076.pdf

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The Critical Review of International Unitisation Agreement (IUA) Signed by Timor-Leste and Australia on 6 of March 2003

9/5/2017

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A Critical Review of International Unitisation Agreement (IUA) Signed by Timor-Leste and Australia on 6 of March 2003

by Tomas Freitas

On 1 September 2017 in Copenhagen, Denmark, the Permanent Court of Arbitration called a press conference to update the results of the conciliation between Timor-Leste and Australia. According to the announcement both parties are to be congratulated on their achievements. However, an interpretation of the statements from the Timor-Leste chief negotiator Xanana Gusmao and Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, leave more questions to be answered. As per Xanana Gusmao:

“I thank the commission for its resolve and skill in bringing the parties together, through a long and at times difficult process, to helps us achieve our dream of full sovereignty and to finally settle our maritime boundaries with Australia. This is an historic agreement and marks the beginning of a new era in Timor-Leste’s friendship with Australia” (Permanent Court Arbitration, 2017,pp1)

A similar declaration was spoken by Julie Bishop: “This is a landmark day in the relationship between Timor-Leste and Australia. This agreement, which supports the national interest of both our nations, further strengthens the long-standing and deep ties between our Governments and our people. I thank the commission for its role in bringing both parties together” (Permanent Court Arbitration, 2017, pp2).

Both declarations seem to have their own foundation; let’s examine these statements. On the Timor-Leste side Xanana Gusmao is very confident that the country will achieve the dream of “full sovereignty” which can be interpreted that Timor will have a median line and lateral lines, or in other words that Timor-Leste and Australia will fully draw the lines for their maritime borders. On the other hand, Julie Bishop believes that the agreement has supported both of the national interests. What is the meaning of national interest for Australia?

According to the Australian National Interest document which was tabled on 14 May 2003, Australia has eight fundamental reasons for implementing the International Unitisation Agreement (IUA). One of the essential reasons is that “under Annex E of the Timor Sea Treaty, the Greater Sunrise field is to be unitised on the basis that 20.1% of the fields are located within the JPDA, the remaining 79.9% being attributed to Australia. In line with the general revenue-sharing provisions of that treaty, of the 20.1% of the Greater Sunrise field attributed to the JPDA, 90% of the Petroleum Resources and therefore revenue goes to East Timor, with 10% going to Australia”. (Journal of the Senate, 2003) full document can be read on the Lao Hamutuk website, (Government of Australia, 2003).

As mentioned above, the Timor Sea Treaty 2002 generated the Annex E and the International Unitisation Agreement (IUA) specifies in detail about Annex E. The document was signed on 6 of March 2003 by the former minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Downer and the former Minister of the Council of Ministers Ana Pesoa. The agreement entered into force on 23 February 2007 after the Timor-Leste National Parliament ratified it on 21 February 2007 and it was signed by the former Speaker of the Parliament Francisco Guterres Lu Olo, currently President of Timor-Leste. The files detail the 79.9/20.1 split of the Sunrise and Troubadour fields between the two countries, which is clearly explained in Article 7 below:

ARTICLE 7
Apportionment of Unit Petroleum
Production of Petroleum from the Unit Reservoirs shall be apportioned between the JPDA and Australia according to the Apportionment Ratio 20.1:79.9, with 20.1% apportioned to the JPDA and 79.9% apportioned to Australia.

The ratio of 79.9% not only includes the size of reservoirs and the revenue from the fields but also controls the natural resources with all Australian laws and regulations as stated in the Article number 4, which concerns Application of Laws (IUA, 2003, pp 4). However, Timor-Leste could try to explore Article number 8 to challenge Article number 7 of the IUA, as one of the possibilities to change the apportionment of the Greater Sunrise fields.

ARTICLE 8
Article number 8 describes the possibilities of Reapportionment of Units of Petroleum in the Greater Sunrise fields. The ratios of 20.1% and 79.9% could change if:

“(a) Either Australia or Timor-Leste may request the Unit Operator to undertake a redetermination of the Apportionment Ratio.

(b) Australia and Timor-Leste shall have regard to the desirability of minimising the number of reviews of the Apportionment Ratio.

(c) Any redetermination of the Apportionment Ratio shall not occur within five (5) years of any prior redetermination, except that a redetermination may occur within twelve (12) months of the commencement of production from the Unit Reservoirs.

(d) The Unit Operator shall use only commercially available software in a redetermination of the Apportionment Ratio. Only data that is available to both Governments as at the date the redetermination is requested shall be utilised by the Unit Operator and all data and analyses pursuant to the Unit Operator’s proposal for the redetermined Apportionment Ratio shall be provided to both Governments with the proposal. The Unit Operator shall use all reasonable endeavours to complete the redetermination within 120 days.

(e) Any change to the Apportionment Ratio arising from a redetermination requested under subparagraph (a) has effect when it is agreed by the Regulatory Authorities or, if referred to an expert for determination, when the expert makes a final decision.

(f) Any change to the Apportionment Ratio shall be retrospective and past receipts and expenditures shall be adjusted.

(2) Notwithstanding paragraph 1, either Australia or Timor-Leste may request a review of the Apportionment Ratio. Following such a review, the Apportionment Ratio may be altered by agreement between Australia and Timor-Leste.” (IUA, 2003, pp5)

Point A states that either Australia or Timor-Leste may request the Unit Operator, in this case Woodside, to undertake a redetermination of the Apportionment Ratio. However, Timor-Leste does not have a good relationship with Woodside because of the debate about the pipeline, which Timor-Leste wants to be located at the future Bee-Asu LNG rather than the floating LNG proposed by the Unit Operator. The question is will Australia comply with a request to change the apportionment ratios?

It is possible to apply point B, if both parties desperately want to increase their production, which means that this point cannot be undertake while production has not yet started. It doesn’t make sense for both parties to agree to changes which would benefit just one party.

But It does make sense for point C, that the Unit Operator needs five years to examine all the requests and proposals before re-determining the apportionment ratios.

The Unit Operator shall use only commercially available software for examining and redetermination of the ratios. However, one party has more advanced technology software than the other party.

Timor-Leste may have a chance to counter Article number 7 by using Article number 8. Although it may be favourable for Timor-Leste to apply article number 8, still both parties would have to amend another Article which is Article number 2, as stated below:

ARTICLE 2
Without prejudice
(1) Nothing contained in this Agreement, no acts taking place while this Agreement is in force or as a consequence of this Agreement and no law operating in the Unit Area by virtue of this Agreement

(a) shall be interpreted as prejudicing or affecting the position of either Australia or Timor-Leste with regard to their respective maritime boundaries or rights or claims thereto; and

(b) may be relied on as a basis for asserting, supporting, denying or limiting the position of either Australia or Timor-Leste with regard to their respective maritime boundaries or rights or claims thereto, (IUA, 2003, pp 3).

Article number 2 clearly does not allow Timor-Leste and Australia to claim their maritime boundary rights. If either party wishes to alter an article, they must follow Article 26 which about Settlement of Disputes, as outlined below:

ARTICLE 26
Settlement of Disputes
(1) Any disputes about the interpretation or application of this Agreement shall be, as far as possible, settled by consultation or negotiation.

(2) Subject to paragraph (3), if a dispute cannot be resolved in the manner specified in paragraph (1) or by any other agreed procedure, the dispute shall be submitted, at the request of either Government, to an Arbitral Tribunal set out in Annex IV.

(3) If a dispute arises concerning a proposal for a redetermined Apportionment Ratio pursuant to Article 8(1) or concerning the measurement, pursuant to Article 24, of quantities of gas and liquids, an expert shall be appointed by Australia and Timor-Leste to determine the matter in question. The two Governments shall, within 60 days of notification by either of them of such a dispute, try to reach agreement on the appointment of such an expert. If, within this period, no agreement has been reached, the procedures specified in Annex V shall be followed. The expert appointed shall act in accordance with the terms of Annex V. The expert’s decision shall be final and binding on both Governments and on the Sunrise Joint Venturers, save in the event of fraud or manifest error. (IUA, 2003, pp 13)

If either party wishes to apply point number one, will they have enough time for consultation and negotiation considering there is only one month left to reach a final agreement? And if the dispute cannot be resolved as specified in point number 1, will both parties start again by registering a new case at the arbitration tribunal? Considering resources and timing, would they be willing to do this again? And if the dispute is in relation to the quantities of gas and liquids, both parties must appoint an expert to act in accordance with the rules and procedures of Annex V; however, at the beginning of this conciliation process, the Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop questioned the capability of the commission to exercise their mandate to pursue this case. If it comes to it, will Australia respect the experts?

Conclusion

This paper has analysed in detail any possibilities for Timor-Leste to challenge the IUA; however, the IUA has been designed to benefit one party, which in this case is Australia. The writer believes that both parties may reach a final agreement by ignoring the claims for a maritime boundary and sticking to the original apportionment of ANNEX E. it could also be that both countries just agree to commence exploration by re-adopting the “creative solution” which is a 50:50 share of profits. in this case both Timor-Leste and Australia desperately want to commence the development of Greater Sunrise because Timor-Leste has almost exhausted revenue from Bayu-Undan and Australia’s Wickham Point LNG storage facility might be abandoned in coming years without a supply of gas.

References

Government of Australia., 2003. ‘Australian National Interest’, available at http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/Boundary/2002/IUAnia.pdf

International Unitisation Agreement., 2003. Available at http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/Boundary/IUA.pdf

Permanent Court of Arbitration, 2017., ‘Conciliation between the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste and the Commonwealth of Australia’, Press Release, No 9, 31st of September 2017. Available at https://pcacases.com/web/sendAttach/2230

The Parliament Of The Commonwealth Of Australia., 2003. ‘Australian National Interest’, Journal of The Senate. No 76. 14 May 2003. Available at http://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/senate/work/journals/2003/jnlp_076.pdf

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Analiza ba diferensia entre individualista no klasse iha ekonomia; Komparasaun entre ekonomia Marxismo no Neoclassical Hakerek-Nain: Tomas Freitas

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Analiza ba diferensia entre individualista no klasse iha ekonomia;
Komparasaun entre ekonomia Marxismo no Neoclassical
Hakerek-Nain: Tomas Freitas

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